Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 12:30 •
Senger Arena
Expected Goals
2.78 (league 1.65)
1.16 (league 1.42)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 64.8% | 15.5% | 13.3% |
best score tips
2 - 1
8.7%
3 - 1
8.1%
2 - 0
7.5%
Score & goals probability table
| Rot Weiss Ahlen | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Gievenbeck | 0 | 2.1% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 5.7% | 6.5% | 3.7% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 7.7% | 8.8% | 5.0% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 7.1% | 8.1% | 4.6% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 4.8% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 2.6% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Gievenbeck carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 159 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Gievenbeck -4.4, Rot Weiss Ahlen +4.3.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Gievenbeck
vs
Rot Weiss Ahlen
Elo gapGievenbeck +159
Home / draw / away58% / 18% / 24%
Expected home share71%
Combined Elo2878
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2878
Elo home share
71%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Gievenbeck | Rot Weiss Ahlen |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1501 | 1377 |
| Form Elo | 1505.4 | 1383.7 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1499.9 | 1438.1 |
| Attack Elo | 1505.1 | 1366.6 |
| Defense Elo | 1519.3 | 1333.2 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -4.4 | +4.3 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Gievenbeck last-5 Elo change: -4.4; Rot Weiss Ahlen last-5 Elo change: +4.3.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Gievenbeck | Rot Weiss Ahlen |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 60% |
| Attack | 65% | 45% |
| Defense | 50% | 60% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 13 | 2.6 | 9 | 1.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 10 | 2 | 8 | 1.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.80
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.70
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.20
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
67%
FT probability
3.5+
48%
FT probability
BTTS
80%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Gievenbeck | Rot Weiss Ahlen | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 15 | 30 | 15 | 12 | 27 |
| Wins | 40% | 40% | 40% | 40% | 8% | 26% |
| Draws | 20% | 20% | 20% | 13% | 25% | 19% |
| Loses | 40% | 40% | 40% | 47% | 67% | 56% |
GievenbeckDLWLWLWWLLWDLDWWLWLWDLDWLDWLLW
Rot Weiss AhlenLWLDWLLLLLDLDLLDLWLDLWLWWWL
League goals
| Metric | Gievenbeck | Rot Weiss Ahlen | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 25 | 26 | 51 | 15 | 13 | 28 |
| GF avg | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| GA total | 23 | 24 | 47 | 26 | 32 | 58 |
| GA avg | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.1 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Gievenbeck | Rot Weiss Ahlen | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 77% | 93% | 70% | 81% |
| 1.5 | 50% | 47% | 30% | 59% |
| 2.5 | 27% | 17% | 4% | 41% |
| 3.5 | 13% | 0% | 0% | 26% |
| 4.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 4% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Gievenbeck | Rot Weiss Ahlen | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 8 |
Penalties
| Metric | Gievenbeck | Rot Weiss Ahlen |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Gievenbeck | Rot Weiss Ahlen |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 3 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 2 | 5 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 2-5 | 3-0 | 0-1 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 3-0 | 1-6 | 4-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 3 | 6 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Gievenbeck | Rot Weiss Ahlen |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 44% | 56% |
| Att | 59% | 41% |
| Def | 44% | 56% |
| Poisson Distribution | 70% | 30% |
| H2h | 33% | 67% |
| Goals | 44% | 56% |
| Total | 49.0% | 51.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Gievenbeck
vs
Rot Weiss Ahlen
Expected goals
2.78
Gievenbeck xG
League Avg: 1.65
Total
3.94
1.16
Rot Weiss Ahlen xG
League Avg: 1.42
1x2 probabilities
Home
64.8%
Draw
15.5%
Away
13.3%
Best score tips
Tip
2 - 1
8.7%
Tip
3 - 1
8.1%
Tip
2 - 0
7.5%
More chances
1.5+
95%
Chance
2.5+
67%
Chance
3.5+
48%
Chance
BTTS
80%
Chance
🟨 Cards
—
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Gievenbeck = 2.74 (league 1.68), Rot Weiss Ahlen = 1.14 (league 1.44)
| Rot Weiss Ahlen | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Gievenbeck | 0 | 2.1% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 5.7% | 6.5% | 3.7% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 7.7% | 8.8% | 5.0% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 7.1% | 8.1% | 4.6% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 4.8% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 2.6% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 64.9% · Draw 15.7% · Away win 13.3%
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