Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 13:00 •
Stadio Marco Druso
Expected Goals
1.04 (league 1.49)
0.74 (league 1.08)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 41.8% | 32.6% | 25.5% |
best score tips
1 - 0
17.6%
0 - 0
17.0%
1 - 1
13.0%
Score & goals probability table
| Mantova | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Sudtirol | 0 | 17.0% | 12.5% | 4.6% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 17.6% | 13.0% | 4.8% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 9.1% | 6.7% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 3.1% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Sudtirol carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 57 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Sudtirol -17.6, Mantova +37.0.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Sudtirol
vs
Mantova
Elo gapSudtirol +57
Home / draw / away44% / 24% / 32%
Expected home share58%
Combined Elo2919.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2919.3
Elo home share
58%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Sudtirol | Mantova |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1470.5 | 1448.8 |
| Form Elo | 1469.5 | 1469.8 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1489.5 | 1435.8 |
| Attack Elo | 1464.5 | 1446.9 |
| Defense Elo | 1526.4 | 1481 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -17.6 | +37.0 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Sudtirol last-5 Elo change: -17.6; Mantova last-5 Elo change: +37.0.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Sudtirol | Mantova |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 13% | 60% |
| Attack | 55% | 64% |
| Defense | 0% | 64% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 14 | 2.8 | 4 | 0.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.20
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.90
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.60
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.40
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
65%
FT probability
2.5+
46%
FT probability
3.5+
33%
FT probability
BTTS
64%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Sudtirol | Mantova | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 17 | 18 | 35 | 18 | 17 | 35 |
| Wins | 29% | 17% | 23% | 44% | 18% | 31% |
| Draws | 35% | 56% | 46% | 17% | 24% | 20% |
| Loses | 35% | 28% | 31% | 39% | 59% | 49% |
SudtirolDWLDWDLDLLDDDLDDDLWWWWDDWLDWLDLLDDL
MantovaLWLLLLDDLLWWWLLLLDDWLDWLLWDLWDWLWWL
League goals
| Metric | Sudtirol | Mantova | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 18 | 19 | 37 | 25 | 14 | 39 |
| GF avg | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| GA total | 17 | 26 | 43 | 27 | 23 | 50 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Sudtirol | Mantova | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 66% | 77% | 69% | 77% |
| 1.5 | 26% | 23% | 34% | 37% |
| 2.5 | 11% | 14% | 6% | 17% |
| 3.5 | 3% | 3% | 3% | 6% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 3% | 0% | 6% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Sudtirol | Mantova | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
| Failed to score | 7 | 5 | 12 | 3 | 8 | 11 |
Penalties
| Metric | Sudtirol | Mantova |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 3 | 100.00% | 5 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 3 | 5 |
Streaks
| Metric | Sudtirol | Mantova |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 3 |
| Draws | 3 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 0-4 | 4-1 | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | 1-3 | 6-1 | 1-5 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Sudtirol | Mantova |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 18% | 82% |
| Att | 46% | 54% |
| Def | 22% | 78% |
| Poisson Distribution | 56% | 44% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 46% | 54% |
| Total | 39.7% | 60.3% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.27 @ Betano
Draw3.10 @ William Hill
Away3.99 @ Pinnacle
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.18 @ Betano
Under 2.51.72 @ Betano
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.85 @ William Hill
No2.05 @ Betano
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Sudtirol
vs
Mantova
Expected goals
1.04
Sudtirol xG
League Avg: 1.49
Total
1.77
0.74
Mantova xG
League Avg: 1.08
1x2 probabilities
Home
41.8%
Draw
32.6%
Away
25.5%
Best score tips
Tip
1 - 0
17.6%
Tip
0 - 0
17.0%
Tip
1 - 1
13.0%
More chances
1.5+
65%
Chance
2.5+
46%
Chance
3.5+
33%
Chance
BTTS
64%
Chance
🟨 Cards
2 - 4
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Sudtirol = 1.04 (league 1.49), Mantova = 0.74 (league 1.08)
| Mantova | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Sudtirol | 0 | 17.0% | 12.5% | 4.6% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 17.6% | 13.0% | 4.8% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 9.1% | 6.7% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 3.1% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 41.8% · Draw 32.6% · Away win 25.5%
vtt 1 , vtd1