National 1
— France
Fri, Apr 24 2026 • 17:30 •
Stade Robert Diochon
Expected Goals
1.28 (league 1.32)
0.83 (league 1.10)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 47.0% | 28.8% | 23.9% |
best score tips
1 - 0
15.6%
1 - 1
12.9%
0 - 0
12.1%
Score & goals probability table
| Aubagne | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Rouen | 0 | 12.1% | 10.0% | 4.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 15.6% | 12.9% | 5.3% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 10.0% | 8.2% | 3.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 4.3% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Rouen carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 114 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Rouen -14.6, Aubagne -6.4.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Rouen
vs
Aubagne
Elo gapRouen +114
Home / draw / away54% / 18% / 28%
Expected home share66%
Combined Elo3019.8
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3019.8
Elo home share
66%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Rouen | Aubagne |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1549.5 | 1470.3 |
| Form Elo | 1534 | 1452.3 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1528.7 | 1510.2 |
| Attack Elo | 1511.1 | 1477.4 |
| Defense Elo | 1568.5 | 1471.5 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -14.6 | -6.4 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Rouen last-5 Elo change: -14.6; Aubagne last-5 Elo change: -6.4.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Rouen | Aubagne |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 40% | 33% |
| Attack | 50% | 40% |
| Defense | 50% | 20% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 8 | 1.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.60
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.30
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
66%
FT probability
2.5+
47%
FT probability
3.5+
33%
FT probability
BTTS
65%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Rouen | Aubagne | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 14 | 14 | 28 | 14 | 14 | 28 |
| Wins | 50% | 36% | 43% | 14% | 43% | 29% |
| Draws | 36% | 50% | 43% | 50% | 14% | 32% |
| Loses | 14% | 14% | 14% | 36% | 43% | 39% |
RouenDDWWLWWWWWDWDDWWDDLWDDLWDDLD
AubagneLWDDWDWDLDWLWDWDLLWLLLLLDDWL
League goals
| Metric | Rouen | Aubagne | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 18 | 19 | 37 | 14 | 18 | 32 |
| GF avg | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| GA total | 10 | 14 | 24 | 21 | 18 | 39 |
| GA avg | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Rouen | Aubagne | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 82% | 61% | 71% | 82% |
| 1.5 | 29% | 21% | 25% | 36% |
| 2.5 | 21% | 4% | 14% | 14% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 4% | 7% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Rouen | Aubagne | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 7 | 4 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 5 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
Penalties
| Metric | Rouen | Aubagne |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 4 | 100.00% | 3 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 4 | 3 |
Streaks
| Metric | Rouen | Aubagne |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 5 | 1 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 1 | 5 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 0-3 | 3-1 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 1-2 | 3-1 | 1-4 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Rouen | Aubagne |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 55% | 45% |
| Att | 56% | 44% |
| Def | 62% | 38% |
| Poisson Distribution | 62% | 38% |
| H2h | 13% | 88% |
| Goals | 33% | 67% |
| Total | 46.8% | 53.3% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.50 @ Betano
Draw4.15 @ Pinnacle
Away6.12 @ Pinnacle
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.95 @ 1xBet
No1.78 @ 1xBet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.86 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.93 @ Pinnacle
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Rouen
vs
Aubagne
Expected goals
1.28
Rouen xG
League Avg: 1.32
Total
2.11
0.83
Aubagne xG
League Avg: 1.10
1x2 probabilities
Home
47.0%
Draw
28.8%
Away
23.9%
Best score tips
Tip
1 - 0
15.6%
Tip
1 - 1
12.9%
Tip
0 - 0
12.1%
More chances
1.5+
66%
Chance
2.5+
47%
Chance
3.5+
33%
Chance
BTTS
65%
Chance
🟨 Cards
1 - 4
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Rouen = 1.28 (league 1.32), Aubagne = 0.83 (league 1.10)
| Aubagne | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Rouen | 0 | 12.1% | 10.0% | 4.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 15.6% | 12.9% | 5.3% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 10.0% | 8.2% | 3.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 4.3% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 47.0% · Draw 28.8% · Away win 23.9%
vtt 1 , vtd1