Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 13:00 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
2.29 (league 1.56)
1.53 (league 1.11)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 51.8% | 19.9% | 24.9% |
best score tips
2 - 1
8.8%
1 - 1
7.7%
2 - 2
6.7%
Score & goals probability table
| Amiens SC II | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Metz II | 0 | 2.2% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 5.0% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% | |
| 2 | 5.7% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.4% | |
| 3 | 4.4% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 2.5% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Metz II carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 27 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Metz II -3.8, Amiens SC II +24.6.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Metz II
vs
Amiens SC II
Elo gapMetz II +27
Home / draw / away39% / 27% / 34%
Expected home share54%
Combined Elo2994
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2994
Elo home share
54%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Metz II | Amiens SC II |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1493 | 1501 |
| Form Elo | 1489.1 | 1510.2 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1524.7 | 1485 |
| Attack Elo | 1550.9 | 1475.1 |
| Defense Elo | 1451.2 | 1514.6 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -3.8 | +24.6 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Metz II last-5 Elo change: -3.8; Amiens SC II last-5 Elo change: +24.6.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Metz II | Amiens SC II |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 67% |
| Attack | 56% | 78% |
| Defense | 22% | 56% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 4 | 0.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.10
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.20
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.40
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
89%
FT probability
2.5+
62%
FT probability
3.5+
44%
FT probability
BTTS
80%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Metz II | Amiens SC II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 11 | 12 | 23 | 12 | 10 | 22 |
| Wins | 55% | 25% | 39% | 42% | 20% | 32% |
| Draws | 9% | 17% | 13% | 25% | 20% | 23% |
| Loses | 36% | 58% | 48% | 33% | 60% | 45% |
Metz IIDLLLWWWLWWLLLLDWLWLDLWW
Amiens SC IILDWLWLDLLWDLLWLLDWDLWW
League goals
| Metric | Metz II | Amiens SC II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 23 | 12 | 35 | 17 | 10 | 27 |
| GF avg | 2.1 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| GA total | 19 | 19 | 38 | 15 | 17 | 32 |
| GA avg | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.5 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Metz II | Amiens SC II | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 83% | 96% | 68% | 86% |
| 1.5 | 39% | 52% | 45% | 50% |
| 2.5 | 17% | 13% | 9% | 9% |
| 3.5 | 4% | 4% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Metz II | Amiens SC II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 7 |
Penalties
| Metric | Metz II | Amiens SC II |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Metz II | Amiens SC II |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 1 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 4 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 6-2 | 1-3 | 2-0 | 2-3 |
| Biggest losses | 1-4 | 3-0 | 2-3 | 2-0 |
| Goals For | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Metz II | Amiens SC II |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 41% | 59% |
| Att | 42% | 58% |
| Def | 36% | 64% |
| Poisson Distribution | 60% | 40% |
| H2h | 0% | 100% |
| Goals | 33% | 67% |
| Total | 42.4% | 57.6% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Metz II
vs
Amiens SC II
Expected goals
2.29
Metz II xG
League Avg: 1.56
Total
3.82
1.53
Amiens SC II xG
League Avg: 1.11
1x2 probabilities
Home
51.8%
Draw
19.9%
Away
24.9%
Best score tips
Tip
2 - 1
8.8%
Tip
1 - 1
7.7%
Tip
2 - 2
6.7%
More chances
1.5+
89%
Chance
2.5+
62%
Chance
3.5+
44%
Chance
BTTS
80%
Chance
🟨 Cards
—
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Metz II = 2.29 (league 1.56), Amiens SC II = 1.53 (league 1.11)
| Amiens SC II | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Metz II | 0 | 2.2% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 5.0% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% | |
| 2 | 5.7% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.4% | |
| 3 | 4.4% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 2.5% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 51.8% · Draw 19.9% · Away win 24.9%
vtt 1 , vtd1