Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 12:30 •
Sportpark Ter Specke
Expected Goals
1.94 (league 1.76)
0.60 (league 1.51)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 67.9% | 20.2% | 10.5% |
best score tips
1 - 0
15.4%
2 - 0
14.9%
3 - 0
9.6%
Score & goals probability table
| Rijnvogels | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| FC Lisse | 0 | 8.0% | 4.8% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 15.3% | 9.3% | 2.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 14.7% | 8.9% | 2.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 9.5% | 5.7% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 4.5% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
FC Lisse carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 47 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: FC Lisse +20.1, Rijnvogels -8.1.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
FC Lisse
vs
Rijnvogels
Elo gapFC Lisse +47
Home / draw / away43% / 25% / 32%
Expected home share57%
Combined Elo3091.8
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3091.8
Elo home share
57%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | FC Lisse | Rijnvogels |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1551.7 | 1540.1 |
| Form Elo | 1568.6 | 1546.5 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1527.4 | 1531.5 |
| Attack Elo | 1522.9 | 1607 |
| Defense Elo | 1580.5 | 1429.7 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +20.1 | -8.1 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. FC Lisse last-5 Elo change: +20.1; Rijnvogels last-5 Elo change: -8.1.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | FC Lisse | Rijnvogels |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 60% | 33% |
| Attack | 35% | 24% |
| Defense | 88% | 65% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 4 | 0.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.4 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.70
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.80
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.20
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
84%
FT probability
2.5+
59%
FT probability
3.5+
42%
FT probability
BTTS
74%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
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Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | FC Lisse | Rijnvogels | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 15 | 30 | 15 | 15 | 30 |
| Wins | 67% | 47% | 57% | 60% | 53% | 57% |
| Draws | 20% | 33% | 27% | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Loses | 13% | 20% | 17% | 20% | 27% | 23% |
FC LisseWDWLLWDLDWWLWWDLWDWWWWWWWDWDWD
RijnvogelsWWDWWDLWWLWWWLWWLWDDWWWLWLLWDD
League goals
| Metric | FC Lisse | Rijnvogels | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 30 | 28 | 58 | 28 | 27 | 55 |
| GF avg | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| GA total | 7 | 19 | 26 | 9 | 25 | 34 |
| GA avg | 0.5 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 1.7 | 1.1 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | FC Lisse | Rijnvogels | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 90% | 63% | 83% | 70% |
| 1.5 | 60% | 20% | 57% | 30% |
| 2.5 | 23% | 3% | 33% | 10% |
| 3.5 | 10% | 0% | 10% | 3% |
| 4.5 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | FC Lisse | Rijnvogels | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 9 | 2 | 11 | 8 | 1 | 9 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 5 |
Penalties
| Metric | FC Lisse | Rijnvogels |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | FC Lisse | Rijnvogels |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 7 | 3 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-0 | 1-4 | 4-0 | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-1 | 3-2 | 1-2 | 4-1 |
| Goals For | 6 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | FC Lisse | Rijnvogels |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 64% | 36% |
| Att | 60% | 40% |
| Def | 75% | 25% |
| Poisson Distribution | 77% | 23% |
| H2h | 33% | 67% |
| Goals | 33% | 67% |
| Total | 57.0% | 43.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
FC Lisse
vs
Rijnvogels
Expected goals
1.94
FC Lisse xG
League Avg: 1.76
Total
2.53
0.60
Rijnvogels xG
League Avg: 1.51
1x2 probabilities
Home
67.9%
Draw
20.2%
Away
10.5%
Best score tips
Tip
1 - 0
15.4%
Tip
2 - 0
14.9%
Tip
3 - 0
9.6%
More chances
1.5+
84%
Chance
2.5+
59%
Chance
3.5+
42%
Chance
BTTS
74%
Chance
🟨 Cards
—
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): FC Lisse = 1.92 (league 1.77), Rijnvogels = 0.61 (league 1.48)
| Rijnvogels | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| FC Lisse | 0 | 8.0% | 4.8% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 15.3% | 9.3% | 2.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 14.7% | 8.9% | 2.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 9.5% | 5.7% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 4.5% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 67.4% · Draw 20.3% · Away win 10.8%
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