Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 12:00 •
Prins Willem Alexander Sportpark
Expected Goals
1.51 (league 1.77)
1.19 (league 1.48)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 44.2% | 25.5% | 29.8% |
best score tips
1 - 1
12.1%
1 - 0
10.2%
2 - 1
9.1%
Score & goals probability table
| UNA | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Blauw Geel | 0 | 6.8% | 8.0% | 4.8% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 10.2% | 12.1% | 7.2% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 7.7% | 9.1% | 5.4% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 3.9% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Blauw Geel carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 96 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Blauw Geel -5.1, UNA +7.2.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Blauw Geel
vs
UNA
Elo gapBlauw Geel +96
Home / draw / away51% / 19% / 30%
Expected home share63%
Combined Elo2957.4
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2957.4
Elo home share
63%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Blauw Geel | UNA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1509 | 1448.4 |
| Form Elo | 1513.3 | 1451.8 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1492.4 | 1498.4 |
| Attack Elo | 1506.5 | 1506 |
| Defense Elo | 1515 | 1420.7 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -5.1 | +7.2 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Blauw Geel last-5 Elo change: -5.1; UNA last-5 Elo change: +7.2.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Blauw Geel | UNA |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 40% | 47% |
| Attack | 29% | 47% |
| Defense | 82% | 47% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 9 | 1.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.90
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.10
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
86%
FT probability
2.5+
60%
FT probability
3.5+
43%
FT probability
BTTS
75%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Blauw Geel | UNA | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 15 | 30 | 15 | 15 | 30 |
| Wins | 33% | 47% | 40% | 27% | 27% | 27% |
| Draws | 33% | 20% | 27% | 27% | 27% | 27% |
| Loses | 33% | 33% | 33% | 47% | 47% | 47% |
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UNALWDDWLLWLLLLLWDLDWDLDLLWDWDLLW
League goals
| Metric | Blauw Geel | UNA | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 21 | 22 | 43 | 21 | 24 | 45 |
| GF avg | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| GA total | 17 | 22 | 39 | 25 | 29 | 54 |
| GA avg | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.8 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Blauw Geel | UNA | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 77% | 67% | 87% | 83% |
| 1.5 | 37% | 43% | 50% | 60% |
| 2.5 | 17% | 17% | 10% | 23% |
| 3.5 | 10% | 3% | 3% | 13% |
| 4.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Blauw Geel | UNA | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 6 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
Penalties
| Metric | Blauw Geel | UNA |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Blauw Geel | UNA |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 1 |
| Draws | 3 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 5 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-0 | 2-4 | 3-0 | 0-4 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 4-0 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Goals For | 5 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Blauw Geel | UNA |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 46% | 54% |
| Att | 38% | 62% |
| Def | 75% | 25% |
| Poisson Distribution | 56% | 44% |
| H2h | 40% | 60% |
| Goals | 55% | 45% |
| Total | 51.7% | 48.3% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Blauw Geel
vs
UNA
Expected goals
1.51
Blauw Geel xG
League Avg: 1.77
Total
2.69
1.19
UNA xG
League Avg: 1.48
1x2 probabilities
Home
44.2%
Draw
25.5%
Away
29.8%
Best score tips
Tip
1 - 1
12.1%
Tip
1 - 0
10.2%
Tip
2 - 1
9.1%
More chances
1.5+
86%
Chance
2.5+
60%
Chance
3.5+
43%
Chance
BTTS
75%
Chance
🟨 Cards
—
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Blauw Geel = 1.51 (league 1.77), UNA = 1.19 (league 1.48)
| UNA | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Blauw Geel | 0 | 6.8% | 8.0% | 4.8% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 10.2% | 12.1% | 7.2% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 7.7% | 9.1% | 5.4% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 3.9% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 44.2% · Draw 25.5% · Away win 29.8%
vtt 1 , vtd1