Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 13:00 •
Stadio Cesare Brin
Expected Goals
0.80 (league 1.30)
0.79 (league 1.11)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 32.4% | 35.4% | 32.2% |
best score tips
0 - 0
20.3%
1 - 0
16.2%
0 - 1
16.2%
Score & goals probability table
| Valenzana | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Cairese | 0 | 19.8% | 16.1% | 6.5% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 16.0% | 13.0% | 5.3% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 6.5% | 5.2% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Balanced Elo outlook
Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Cairese -3.0, Valenzana +24.2.
Thin confidence
Upset risk: High
Elo standalone
Cairese
vs
Valenzana
Elo gapValenzana +6
Home / draw / away35% / 29% / 36%
Expected home share49%
Combined Elo3013.9
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Balanced Elo outlook
Confidence band
Thin confidence
Upset risk
High
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3013.9
Elo home share
49%
Match tone
Strong Watch
| Metric | Cairese | Valenzana |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1486.7 | 1527.2 |
| Form Elo | 1497.8 | 1550.9 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1475.3 | 1508.7 |
| Attack Elo | 1400.6 | 1453.8 |
| Defense Elo | 1579.2 | 1506 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -3.0 | +24.2 |
The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Cairese last-5 Elo change: -3.0; Valenzana last-5 Elo change: +24.2.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Cairese | Valenzana |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 33% | 67% |
| Attack | 18% | 41% |
| Defense | 76% | 53% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 8 | 1.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.60
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.30
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.40
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
58%
FT probability
2.5+
41%
FT probability
3.5+
29%
FT probability
BTTS
63%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
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Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Cairese | Valenzana | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 16 | 16 | 32 | 16 | 16 | 32 |
| Wins | 19% | 31% | 25% | 44% | 31% | 38% |
| Draws | 44% | 38% | 41% | 25% | 31% | 28% |
| Loses | 38% | 31% | 34% | 31% | 38% | 34% |
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ValenzanaWLDDLDWWWDLLLWLDLWLDWDDLLWWLWWDW
League goals
| Metric | Cairese | Valenzana | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 13 | 12 | 25 | 18 | 13 | 31 |
| GF avg | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| GA total | 17 | 16 | 33 | 20 | 21 | 41 |
| GA avg | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Cairese | Valenzana | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 63% | 69% | 72% | 72% |
| 1.5 | 16% | 28% | 22% | 34% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 6% | 3% | 9% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 6% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Cairese | Valenzana | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 6 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 9 |
| Failed to score | 6 | 6 | 12 | 3 | 6 | 9 |
Penalties
| Metric | Cairese | Valenzana |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Cairese | Valenzana |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 3 |
| Draws | 4 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-0 | 1-2 | 2-0 | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | 1-3 | 3-0 | 1-4 | 6-1 |
| Goals For | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Cairese | Valenzana |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 33% | 67% |
| Att | 30% | 70% |
| Def | 67% | 33% |
| Poisson Distribution | 52% | 48% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 0% | 0% |
| Total | 46.4% | 53.6% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Cairese
vs
Valenzana
Expected goals
0.80
Cairese xG
League Avg: 1.30
Total
1.59
0.79
Valenzana xG
League Avg: 1.11
1x2 probabilities
Home
32.4%
Draw
35.4%
Away
32.2%
Best score tips
Tip
0 - 0
20.3%
Tip
1 - 0
16.2%
Tip
0 - 1
16.2%
More chances
1.5+
58%
Chance
2.5+
41%
Chance
3.5+
29%
Chance
BTTS
63%
Chance
🟨 Cards
—
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Cairese = 0.81 (league 1.29), Valenzana = 0.81 (league 1.08)
| Valenzana | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Cairese | 0 | 19.8% | 16.1% | 6.5% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 16.0% | 13.0% | 5.3% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 6.5% | 5.2% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 32.3% · Draw 35.1% · Away win 32.6%
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