Sagrada Esperança vs Luanda City

Girabola — Angola

Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 14:00 • Estádio Quintalão

Not Started

home	draw	away
59.4%	21.4%	17.6%

		Luanda City
Sagrada Esperança	0	5.5%	5.2%	2.5%	0.8%	0.2%	0.0%
1	10.7%	10.2%	4.8%	1.5%	0.4%	0.1%
2	10.5%	9.9%	4.7%	1.5%	0.4%	0.1%
3	6.8%	6.5%	3.1%	1.0%	0.2%	0.0%
4	3.3%	3.2%	1.5%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%
5	1.3%	1.2%	0.6%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%

Home strong edge

Sagrada Esperança carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 91 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Sagrada Esperança -32.7, Luanda City +3.8.

Strong confidence Upset risk: Low Elo standalone

Sagrada Esperança Elo 1510.3 · -32.7

Luanda City Elo 1454.3 · +3.8

Elo gapSagrada Esperança +91

Home / draw / away50% / 20% / 30%

Expected home share63%

Combined Elo2964.6

Deep Elo analysisOpen

Structural edge Home strong edge

Confidence band Strong confidence

Upset risk Low

Model agreement Elo standalone

Combined Elo 2964.6

Elo home share 63%

Match tone Tactical Watch

Metric	Sagrada Esperança	Luanda City
Overall Elo	1510.3	1454.3
Form Elo	1494.9	1455.1
Home / Away Elo	1507.3	1450.9
Attack Elo	1485.7	1374.1
Defense Elo	1532.4	1419.4
Last 5 Elo change	-32.7	+3.8

This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Sagrada Esperança last-5 Elo change: -32.7; Luanda City last-5 Elo change: +3.8.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

Metric	Sagrada Esperança	Luanda City
Played	5	5
Form	7%	67%
Attack	100%	100%
Defense	0%	0%
Goals For (tot \| avg)	4 \| 0.8	5 \| 1
Goals Against (tot \| avg)	9 \| 1.8	3 \| 0.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.20

Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.20

Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.90

Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.60

Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

71%

FT probability

2.5+

50%

FT probability

3.5+

35%

FT probability

BTTS

67%

FT probability

Yellow Cards

Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric	Sagrada Esperança			Luanda City
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Played	14	12	26	12	11	23
Wins	36%	17%	27%	50%	27%	39%
Draws	43%	25%	35%	25%	18%	22%
Loses	21%	58%	38%	25%	55%	39%

Sagrada EsperançaDDDDLDWWLDLWWWLWLLDWDDLLLL

Luanda CityLDLDWLWLLWLWLLDWDWDLWWW

League goals

Metric	Sagrada Esperança			Luanda City
	H	A	T	H	A	T
GF total	21	12	33	12	8	20
GF avg	1.5	1.0	1.3	1.0	0.7	0.9
GA total	16	22	38	16	16	32
GA avg	1.1	1.8	1.5	1.3	1.5	1.4

Under/Over distribution (percent)

Line	Sagrada Esperança		Luanda City
	For	Against	For	Against
0.5	73%	81%	65%	70%
1.5	31%	35%	17%	22%
2.5	15%	23%	4%	17%
3.5	4%	8%	0%	13%
4.5	4%	0%	0%	13%

Clean sheets & failed to score

Metric	Sagrada Esperança			Luanda City
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Clean sheets	3	2	5	6	1	7
Failed to score	5	2	7	2	6	8

Penalties

Metric	Sagrada Esperança	Luanda City
Scored (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	0	0

Streaks

Metric	Sagrada Esperança	Luanda City
Wins	3	1
Draws	4	1
Losses	2	2

Biggest results (H/A)

Metric	H	A	H	A
Biggest wins	5-1	1-3	2-0	1-3
Biggest losses	0-3	4-1	0-5	6-0
Goals For	5	3	2	3
Goals Against	3	4	5	6

Model comparison

Metric	Sagrada Esperança	Luanda City
Form	9%	91%
Att	44%	56%
Def	25%	75%
Poisson Distribution	67%	33%
H2h	88%	13%
Goals	70%	30%
Total	50.5%	49.7%

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

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League standings

Loading standings…

League page • Country page • Venue page • Sagrada Esperança vs Luanda City

footywow.com

Prediction and Tips for:

Sagrada Esperança

Luanda City

Girabola • Angola • Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 14:00 • Estádio Quintalão

Expected goals

1.96

Sagrada Esperança xG League Avg: 1.15

Total

2.90

0.95

Luanda City xG League Avg: 0.81

1x2 probabilities

Home

59.4%

Draw

21.4%

Away

17.6%

Best score tips

Tip

1 - 0

10.7%

Tip

2 - 0

10.5%

Tip

1 - 1

10.2%

More chances

1.5+

71%

Chance

2.5+

50%

Chance

3.5+

35%

Chance

BTTS

67%

Chance

🟨 Cards

—

Exp.

#SagradaEsperança #LuandaCity #Girabola #footballpredictions #footywow

Expected goals (λ): Sagrada Esperança = 1.96 (league 1.15), Luanda City = 0.95 (league 0.81)

		Luanda City
		0	1	2	3	4	5
Sagrada Esperança	0	5.5%	5.2%	2.5%	0.8%	0.2%	0.0%
	1	10.7%	10.2%	4.8%	1.5%	0.4%	0.1%
	2	10.5%	9.9%	4.7%	1.5%	0.4%	0.1%
	3	6.8%	6.5%	3.1%	1.0%	0.2%	0.0%
	4	3.3%	3.2%	1.5%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%
	5	1.3%	1.2%	0.6%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 59.4% · Draw 21.4% · Away win 17.6%

vtt 1 , vtd1

Metric	Sagrada Esperança	Luanda City
Scored (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	0	0

Sagrada Esperança vs Luanda City