Wed, Apr 22 2026 • 15:00 •
Igralište Zmijski
Expected Goals
2.75 (league 1.80)
1.36 (league 1.06)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 60.6% | 16.6% | 16.5% |
best score tips
2 - 1
8.4%
3 - 1
7.7%
2 - 0
6.2%
Score & goals probability table
| Val Kaštel Stari | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Jadran KS | 0 | 1.6% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 4.5% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 6.2% | 8.4% | 5.7% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 5.7% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 3.9% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Jadran KS carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 68 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Jadran KS -36.9, Val Kaštel Stari -22.9.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Jadran KS
vs
Val Kaštel Stari
Elo gapJadran KS +68
Home / draw / away47% / 22% / 31%
Expected home share60%
Combined Elo2934.1
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2934.1
Elo home share
60%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Jadran KS | Val Kaštel Stari |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1483.7 | 1450.4 |
| Form Elo | 1462.8 | 1436.4 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1512.4 | 1433.3 |
| Attack Elo | 1483 | 1506.9 |
| Defense Elo | 1471.4 | 1435.3 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -36.9 | -22.9 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Jadran KS last-5 Elo change: -36.9; Val Kaštel Stari last-5 Elo change: -22.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Jadran KS | Val Kaštel Stari |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 20% | 20% |
| Attack | 30% | 70% |
| Defense | 0% | 0% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 13 | 2.6 | 12 | 2.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.10
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.60
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.80
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
94%
FT probability
2.5+
66%
FT probability
3.5+
47%
FT probability
BTTS
79%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
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Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Jadran KS | Val Kaštel Stari | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 11 | 12 | 23 | 12 | 11 | 23 |
| Wins | 64% | 8% | 35% | 58% | 9% | 35% |
| Draws | 18% | 17% | 17% | 17% | 9% | 13% |
| Loses | 18% | 75% | 48% | 25% | 82% | 52% |
Jadran KSLWDWDWLLWWLWLLDWLDLWLLL
Val Kaštel StariLWLWWLWLLLWLWLWDDDWLLLL
League goals
| Metric | Jadran KS | Val Kaštel Stari | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 21 | 9 | 30 | 19 | 13 | 32 |
| GF avg | 1.9 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| GA total | 13 | 29 | 42 | 13 | 29 | 42 |
| GA avg | 1.2 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 2.6 | 1.8 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Jadran KS | Val Kaštel Stari | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 61% | 78% | 87% | 91% |
| 1.5 | 39% | 52% | 35% | 52% |
| 2.5 | 22% | 30% | 17% | 30% |
| 3.5 | 9% | 17% | 0% | 4% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 4% | 0% | 4% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Jadran KS | Val Kaštel Stari | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
Penalties
| Metric | Jadran KS | Val Kaštel Stari |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Jadran KS | Val Kaštel Stari |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 2 |
| Draws | 1 | 3 |
| Losses | 2 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-1 | 0-2 | 3-1 | 2-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-4 | 5-0 | 0-2 | 5-2 |
| Goals For | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 5 | 2 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Jadran KS | Val Kaštel Stari |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 50% | 50% |
| Att | 30% | 70% |
| Def | 48% | 52% |
| Poisson Distribution | 69% | 31% |
| H2h | 100% | 0% |
| Goals | 100% | 0% |
| Total | 49.3% | 50.8% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Jadran KS
vs
Val Kaštel Stari
Expected goals
2.75
Jadran KS xG
League Avg: 1.80
Total
4.11
1.36
Val Kaštel Stari xG
League Avg: 1.06
1x2 probabilities
Home
60.6%
Draw
16.6%
Away
16.5%
Best score tips
Tip
2 - 1
8.4%
Tip
3 - 1
7.7%
Tip
2 - 0
6.2%
More chances
1.5+
94%
Chance
2.5+
66%
Chance
3.5+
47%
Chance
BTTS
79%
Chance
🟨 Cards
—
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Jadran KS = 2.75 (league 1.80), Val Kaštel Stari = 1.36 (league 1.06)
| Val Kaštel Stari | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Jadran KS | 0 | 1.6% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 4.5% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 6.2% | 8.4% | 5.7% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 5.7% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 3.9% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 60.6% · Draw 16.6% · Away win 16.5%
vtt 1 , vtd1