Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 15:00 •
Aliu Mahama sports stadium
Expected Goals
2.68 (league 1.25)
0.51 (league 0.88)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 77.6% | 12.0% | 4.9% |
best score tips
2 - 0
14.8%
3 - 0
13.2%
1 - 0
11.0%
Score & goals probability table
| Northern City | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Real Tamale | 0 | 4.1% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 11.0% | 5.6% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 14.8% | 7.5% | 1.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 13.2% | 6.7% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 8.8% | 4.5% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 4.7% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Real Tamale carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 64 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Real Tamale +8.9, Northern City -8.9.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Real Tamale
vs
Northern City
Elo gapReal Tamale +64
Home / draw / away46% / 23% / 31%
Expected home share59%
Combined Elo2988.4
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2988.4
Elo home share
59%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Real Tamale | Northern City |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1508.9 | 1479.5 |
| Form Elo | 1549 | 1439.4 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1506.1 | 1486.1 |
| Attack Elo | 1495.5 | 1488.6 |
| Defense Elo | 1509.6 | 1479.4 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +8.9 | -8.9 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Real Tamale last-5 Elo change: +8.9; Northern City last-5 Elo change: -8.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Real Tamale | Northern City |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 53% | 47% |
| Attack | 44% | 67% |
| Defense | 78% | 33% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 12 | 2.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 12 | 2.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.30
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.10
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
73%
FT probability
2.5+
51%
FT probability
3.5+
36%
FT probability
BTTS
66%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Real Tamale | Northern City | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 13 | 13 | 26 | 13 | 13 | 26 |
| Wins | 77% | 23% | 50% | 38% | 15% | 27% |
| Draws | 15% | 46% | 31% | 15% | 23% | 19% |
| Loses | 8% | 31% | 19% | 46% | 62% | 54% |
Real TamaleDDWWWWDWDLLWWLWDWDWWLWDWLD
Northern CityWLDLLLLLWDDWLLWLLDLLWLLWDW
League goals
| Metric | Real Tamale | Northern City | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 27 | 9 | 36 | 25 | 12 | 37 |
| GF avg | 2.1 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| GA total | 6 | 11 | 17 | 20 | 21 | 41 |
| GA avg | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Real Tamale | Northern City | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 77% | 50% | 65% | 85% |
| 1.5 | 35% | 15% | 42% | 50% |
| 2.5 | 19% | 0% | 23% | 19% |
| 3.5 | 8% | 0% | 12% | 4% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Real Tamale | Northern City | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 8 | 5 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 9 |
Penalties
| Metric | Real Tamale | Northern City |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Real Tamale | Northern City |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 1 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 5 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 2-3 | 4-0 | 1-2 |
| Biggest losses | 1-2 | 2-0 | 2-3 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Real Tamale | Northern City |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 53% | 47% |
| Att | 40% | 60% |
| Def | 75% | 25% |
| Poisson Distribution | 83% | 17% |
| H2h | 100% | 0% |
| Goals | 71% | 29% |
| Total | 64.4% | 35.6% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Real Tamale
vs
Northern City
Expected goals
2.68
Real Tamale xG
League Avg: 1.25
Total
3.19
0.51
Northern City xG
League Avg: 0.88
1x2 probabilities
Home
77.6%
Draw
12.0%
Away
4.9%
Best score tips
Tip
2 - 0
14.8%
Tip
3 - 0
13.2%
Tip
1 - 0
11.0%
More chances
1.5+
73%
Chance
2.5+
51%
Chance
3.5+
36%
Chance
BTTS
66%
Chance
🟨 Cards
—
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Real Tamale = 2.68 (league 1.25), Northern City = 0.51 (league 0.88)
| Northern City | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Real Tamale | 0 | 4.1% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 11.0% | 5.6% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 14.8% | 7.5% | 1.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 13.2% | 6.7% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 8.8% | 4.5% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 4.7% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 77.6% · Draw 12.0% · Away win 4.9%
vtt 1 , vtd1