Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 14:00 •
Stadion Strelnice
Expected Goals
1.05 (league 1.53)
2.33 (league 1.34)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 15.5% | 18.4% | 62.9% |
best score tips
1 - 2
9.7%
0 - 2
9.3%
1 - 1
8.3%
Score & goals probability table
| Kozlovice | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Holešov | 0 | 3.4% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 4.2% | 2.0% |
| 1 | 3.6% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 7.5% | 4.4% | 2.1% | |
| 2 | 1.9% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.1% | |
| 3 | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away edge
Kozlovice carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 71 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Holešov +6.0, Kozlovice -5.7.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Holešov
vs
Kozlovice
Elo gapKozlovice +71
Home / draw / away31% / 22% / 47%
Expected home share40%
Combined Elo2956.9
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2956.9
Elo home share
40%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Holešov | Kozlovice |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1425.3 | 1531.6 |
| Form Elo | 1423.9 | 1534.4 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1473.4 | 1524.5 |
| Attack Elo | 1487.6 | 1541.8 |
| Defense Elo | 1388.7 | 1482.2 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +6.0 | -5.7 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Holešov last-5 Elo change: +6.0; Kozlovice last-5 Elo change: -5.7.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Holešov | Kozlovice |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 20% | 67% |
| Attack | 31% | 69% |
| Defense | 44% | 44% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 11 | 2.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 9 | 1.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.40
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.80
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.60
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.60
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
67%
FT probability
3.5+
48%
FT probability
BTTS
78%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Holešov | Kozlovice | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 10 | 10 | 20 | 10 | 10 | 20 |
| Wins | 20% | 10% | 15% | 70% | 40% | 55% |
| Draws | 10% | 20% | 15% | 20% | 40% | 30% |
| Loses | 70% | 70% | 70% | 10% | 20% | 15% |
HolešovLWDLLLLLLWLLDDLLWLLL
KozloviceWDWDDWWLWDLWWWDWDWLW
League goals
| Metric | Holešov | Kozlovice | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 16 | 10 | 26 | 29 | 12 | 41 |
| GF avg | 1.6 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 2.1 |
| GA total | 26 | 20 | 46 | 15 | 10 | 25 |
| GA avg | 2.6 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Holešov | Kozlovice | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 75% | 90% | 85% | 80% |
| 1.5 | 35% | 60% | 55% | 40% |
| 2.5 | 15% | 55% | 40% | 5% |
| 3.5 | 5% | 20% | 20% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 5% | 5% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Holešov | Kozlovice | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
Penalties
| Metric | Holešov | Kozlovice |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Holešov | Kozlovice |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 3 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 6 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 0-2 | 5-1 | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | 1-5 | 3-0 | 0-1 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 5 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Holešov | Kozlovice |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 23% | 77% |
| Att | 31% | 69% |
| Def | 50% | 50% |
| Poisson Distribution | 32% | 68% |
| H2h | 7% | 93% |
| Goals | 24% | 76% |
| Total | 27.8% | 72.2% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Holešov
vs
Kozlovice
Expected goals
1.05
Holešov xG
League Avg: 1.53
Total
3.38
2.33
Kozlovice xG
League Avg: 1.34
1x2 probabilities
Home
15.5%
Draw
18.4%
Away
62.9%
Best score tips
Tip
1 - 2
9.7%
Tip
0 - 2
9.3%
Tip
1 - 1
8.3%
More chances
1.5+
95%
Chance
2.5+
67%
Chance
3.5+
48%
Chance
BTTS
78%
Chance
🟨 Cards
—
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Holešov = 1.05 (league 1.53), Kozlovice = 2.33 (league 1.34)
| Kozlovice | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Holešov | 0 | 3.4% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 4.2% | 2.0% |
| 1 | 3.6% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 7.5% | 4.4% | 2.1% | |
| 2 | 1.9% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.1% | |
| 3 | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 15.5% · Draw 18.4% · Away win 62.9%
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