Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 01:07 •
Estadio Akron
Expected Goals
2.84 (league 1.54)
1.06 (league 1.13)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 67.2% | 14.6% | 11.3% |
best score tips
2 - 1
8.6%
3 - 1
8.2%
2 - 0
8.1%
Score & goals probability table
| Club Tijuana | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Guadalajara Chivas | 0 | 2.0% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 5.7% | 6.1% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 8.1% | 8.6% | 4.6% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 7.7% | 8.2% | 4.4% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 5.5% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 3.1% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Guadalajara Chivas carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 105 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Guadalajara Chivas +35.6, Club Tijuana +12.9.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Guadalajara Chivas
vs
Club Tijuana
Elo gapGuadalajara Chivas +105
Home / draw / away53% / 18% / 29%
Expected home share65%
Combined Elo3094.7
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3094.7
Elo home share
65%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Guadalajara Chivas | Club Tijuana |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1582.5 | 1512.2 |
| Form Elo | 1611.9 | 1513.2 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1530.1 | 1467.5 |
| Attack Elo | 1605.1 | 1561 |
| Defense Elo | 1550.1 | 1444.5 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +35.6 | +12.9 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Guadalajara Chivas last-5 Elo change: +35.6; Club Tijuana last-5 Elo change: +12.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Guadalajara Chivas | Club Tijuana |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 67% | 67% |
| Attack | 94% | 41% |
| Defense | 53% | 71% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 16 | 3.2 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.40
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.50
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.90
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
88%
FT probability
2.5+
62%
FT probability
3.5+
44%
FT probability
BTTS
71%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Guadalajara Chivas | Club Tijuana | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 17 | 17 | 34 | 18 | 17 | 35 |
| Wins | 65% | 53% | 59% | 44% | 24% | 34% |
| Draws | 18% | 6% | 12% | 50% | 24% | 37% |
| Loses | 18% | 41% | 29% | 6% | 53% | 29% |
Guadalajara ChivasLWLLDLWDLWWWWLWWWDLWWWWWWLLWWWWDLW
Club TijuanaWLDDWDWDWLWDLDLLWWWLDWDDDLDDLLWLWWD
League goals
| Metric | Guadalajara Chivas | Club Tijuana | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 39 | 25 | 64 | 30 | 21 | 51 |
| GF avg | 2.3 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| GA total | 17 | 25 | 42 | 12 | 33 | 45 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 1.9 | 1.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Guadalajara Chivas | Club Tijuana | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 79% | 68% | 77% | 66% |
| 1.5 | 59% | 38% | 43% | 34% |
| 2.5 | 29% | 15% | 20% | 17% |
| 3.5 | 15% | 3% | 3% | 9% |
| 4.5 | 6% | 0% | 3% | 3% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Guadalajara Chivas | Club Tijuana | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 8 | 3 | 11 | 10 | 2 | 12 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 8 |
Penalties
| Metric | Guadalajara Chivas | Club Tijuana |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 5 | 100.00% | 8 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 5 | 8 |
Streaks
| Metric | Guadalajara Chivas | Club Tijuana |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 6 | 3 |
| Draws | 1 | 3 |
| Losses | 2 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-0 | 0-2 | 5-0 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 4-1 | 1-2 | 5-0 |
| Goals For | 5 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 4 | 3 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Guadalajara Chivas | Club Tijuana |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 50% | 50% |
| Att | 70% | 30% |
| Def | 38% | 62% |
| Poisson Distribution | 72% | 28% |
| H2h | 62% | 38% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 57.0% | 43.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Guadalajara Chivas
vs
Club Tijuana
Expected goals
2.84
Guadalajara Chivas xG
League Avg: 1.54
Total
3.90
1.06
Club Tijuana xG
League Avg: 1.13
1x2 probabilities
Home
67.2%
Draw
14.6%
Away
11.3%
Best score tips
Tip
2 - 1
8.6%
Tip
3 - 1
8.2%
Tip
2 - 0
8.1%
More chances
1.5+
88%
Chance
2.5+
62%
Chance
3.5+
44%
Chance
BTTS
71%
Chance
🟨 Cards
2 - 4
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Guadalajara Chivas = 2.84 (league 1.54), Club Tijuana = 1.06 (league 1.13)
| Club Tijuana | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Guadalajara Chivas | 0 | 2.0% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 5.7% | 6.1% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 8.1% | 8.6% | 4.6% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 7.7% | 8.2% | 4.4% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 5.5% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 3.1% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 67.2% · Draw 14.6% · Away win 11.3%
vtt 1 , vtd1