USL League One
— USA
Wed, Apr 22 2026 • 22:30 •
Premier Sports Campus
Expected Goals
1.96 (league 1.17)
1.54 (league 0.84)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 46.1% | 21.8% | 30.0% |
best score tips
1 - 1
9.1%
2 - 1
8.9%
1 - 2
7.0%
Score & goals probability table
| Corpus Christi | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Sarasota Paradise | 0 | 3.0% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 5.9% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.4% | |
| 2 | 5.8% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% | |
| 3 | 3.8% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Balanced Elo outlook
Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Sarasota Paradise -12.9, Corpus Christi -8.5.
Thin confidence
Upset risk: High
Elo standalone
Sarasota Paradise
vs
Corpus Christi
Elo gapSarasota Paradise +13
Home / draw / away37% / 29% / 34%
Expected home share52%
Combined Elo3005.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Balanced Elo outlook
Confidence band
Thin confidence
Upset risk
High
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3005.3
Elo home share
52%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Sarasota Paradise | Corpus Christi |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1491.4 | 1513.9 |
| Form Elo | 1433.4 | 1475.6 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1492.3 | 1477.4 |
| Attack Elo | 1504 | 1553.5 |
| Defense Elo | 1501.9 | 1496.6 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -12.9 | -8.5 |
The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Sarasota Paradise last-5 Elo change: -12.9; Corpus Christi last-5 Elo change: -8.5.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Sarasota Paradise | Corpus Christi |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 4 |
| Form | 27% | 17% |
| Attack | 25% | 25% |
| Defense | 50% | 44% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 4 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 9 | 2.3 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.70
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.80
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.60
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
79%
FT probability
2.5+
56%
FT probability
3.5+
40%
FT probability
BTTS
69%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-5
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Sarasota Paradise | Corpus Christi | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 4 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
| Wins | 25% | 0% | 17% | — | 0% | 0% |
| Draws | 25% | 0% | 17% | — | 50% | 50% |
| Loses | 50% | 100% | 67% | — | 50% | 50% |
Sarasota ParadiseLDWLLL
Corpus ChristiDDLL
League goals
| Metric | Sarasota Paradise | Corpus Christi | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
| GF avg | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| GA total | 5 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 9 | 9 |
| GA avg | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Sarasota Paradise | Corpus Christi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 50% | 83% | 75% | 75% |
| 1.5 | 17% | 67% | 25% | 75% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 25% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 25% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 25% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Sarasota Paradise | Corpus Christi | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Penalties
| Metric | Sarasota Paradise | Corpus Christi |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Sarasota Paradise | Corpus Christi |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 0 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 1 | 0 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 1-0 | — | — | — |
| Biggest losses | 1-2 | 2-0 | — | 5-1 |
| Goals For | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Sarasota Paradise | Corpus Christi |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 67% | 33% |
| Att | 50% | 50% |
| Def | 53% | 47% |
| Poisson Distribution | 54% | 46% |
| H2h | 0% | 0% |
| Goals | 0% | 0% |
| Total | 56.0% | 44.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Sarasota Paradise
vs
Corpus Christi
Expected goals
1.96
Sarasota Paradise xG
League Avg: 1.17
Total
3.50
1.54
Corpus Christi xG
League Avg: 0.84
1x2 probabilities
Home
46.1%
Draw
21.8%
Away
30.0%
Best score tips
Tip
1 - 1
9.1%
Tip
2 - 1
8.9%
Tip
1 - 2
7.0%
More chances
1.5+
79%
Chance
2.5+
56%
Chance
3.5+
40%
Chance
BTTS
69%
Chance
🟨 Cards
2 - 5
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Sarasota Paradise = 1.96 (league 1.17), Corpus Christi = 1.54 (league 0.84)
| Corpus Christi | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Sarasota Paradise | 0 | 3.0% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 5.9% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.4% | |
| 2 | 5.8% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% | |
| 3 | 3.8% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 46.1% · Draw 21.8% · Away win 30.0%
vtt 1 , vtd1