Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 15:00 •
Stadion u Parku
Expected Goals
0.82 (league 1.43)
0.77 (league 1.09)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 33.7% | 35.4% | 30.9% |
best score tips
0 - 0
20.3%
1 - 0
16.7%
0 - 1
15.7%
Score & goals probability table
| Petrovac | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Arsenal Tivat | 0 | 20.3% | 15.7% | 6.1% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 16.7% | 12.9% | 5.0% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 6.8% | 5.3% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away lean
Petrovac carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 27 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Arsenal Tivat +20.7, Petrovac +1.1.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Arsenal Tivat
vs
Petrovac
Elo gapPetrovac +27
Home / draw / away34% / 27% / 39%
Expected home share46%
Combined Elo2975.1
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2975.1
Elo home share
46%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Arsenal Tivat | Petrovac |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1456.7 | 1518.4 |
| Form Elo | 1462.4 | 1519.9 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1518 | 1503.1 |
| Attack Elo | 1387.2 | 1505.6 |
| Defense Elo | 1484.3 | 1580.8 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +20.7 | +1.1 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Arsenal Tivat last-5 Elo change: +20.7; Petrovac last-5 Elo change: +1.1.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Arsenal Tivat | Petrovac |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 60% | 27% |
| Attack | 67% | 22% |
| Defense | 67% | 44% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 2 | 0.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.10
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.20
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
61%
FT probability
2.5+
43%
FT probability
3.5+
31%
FT probability
BTTS
63%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Arsenal Tivat | Petrovac | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 15 | 30 | 15 | 15 | 30 |
| Wins | 40% | 27% | 33% | 47% | 33% | 40% |
| Draws | 33% | 20% | 27% | 33% | 27% | 30% |
| Loses | 27% | 53% | 40% | 20% | 40% | 30% |
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PetrovacWDDDDWLDDWWLLDLWLWDWLWWWWLLWDL
League goals
| Metric | Arsenal Tivat | Petrovac | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 14 | 15 | 29 | 21 | 18 | 39 |
| GF avg | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| GA total | 11 | 25 | 36 | 10 | 19 | 29 |
| GA avg | 0.7 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Arsenal Tivat | Petrovac | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 57% | 63% | 73% | 73% |
| 1.5 | 37% | 37% | 37% | 17% |
| 2.5 | 3% | 10% | 13% | 7% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 10% | 7% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Arsenal Tivat | Petrovac | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 7 | 4 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 8 |
| Failed to score | 6 | 7 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
Penalties
| Metric | Arsenal Tivat | Petrovac |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 3 | 100.00% | 3 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 3 | 3 |
Streaks
| Metric | Arsenal Tivat | Petrovac |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 4 |
| Draws | 2 | 4 |
| Losses | 3 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-0 | 0-2 | 4-0 | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | 1-2 | 4-1 | 0-2 | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Arsenal Tivat | Petrovac |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 69% | 31% |
| Att | 75% | 25% |
| Def | 63% | 38% |
| Poisson Distribution | 49% | 51% |
| H2h | 29% | 71% |
| Goals | 36% | 64% |
| Total | 53.5% | 46.7% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Arsenal Tivat
vs
Petrovac
Expected goals
0.82
Arsenal Tivat xG
League Avg: 1.43
Total
1.59
0.77
Petrovac xG
League Avg: 1.09
1x2 probabilities
Home
33.7%
Draw
35.4%
Away
30.9%
Best score tips
Tip
0 - 0
20.3%
Tip
1 - 0
16.7%
Tip
0 - 1
15.7%
More chances
1.5+
61%
Chance
2.5+
43%
Chance
3.5+
31%
Chance
BTTS
63%
Chance
🟨 Cards
1 - 3
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Arsenal Tivat = 0.82 (league 1.43), Petrovac = 0.77 (league 1.09)
| Petrovac | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Arsenal Tivat | 0 | 20.3% | 15.7% | 6.1% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 16.7% | 12.9% | 5.0% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 6.8% | 5.3% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 33.7% · Draw 35.4% · Away win 30.9%
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