Liga MX U21
— Mexico
Wed, Apr 22 2026 • 16:00 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
0.92 (league 1.56)
1.52 (league 1.11)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 22.7% | 25.9% | 50.8% |
best score tips
0 - 1
13.3%
1 - 1
12.2%
0 - 2
10.1%
Score & goals probability table
| Toluca U21 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Mazatlan FC U21 | 0 | 8.8% | 13.3% | 10.1% | 5.1% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 8.0% | 12.2% | 9.2% | 4.7% | 1.8% | 0.5% | |
| 2 | 3.7% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away lean
Toluca U21 carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 40 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Mazatlan FC U21 -39.1, Toluca U21 +25.4.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Mazatlan FC U21
vs
Toluca U21
Elo gapToluca U21 +40
Home / draw / away33% / 25% / 42%
Expected home share44%
Combined Elo2947
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2947
Elo home share
44%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Mazatlan FC U21 | Toluca U21 |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1436.1 | 1510.9 |
| Form Elo | 1412.8 | 1519.6 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1497.8 | 1491 |
| Attack Elo | 1422.8 | 1539.2 |
| Defense Elo | 1399.2 | 1492.3 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -39.1 | +25.4 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Mazatlan FC U21 last-5 Elo change: -39.1; Toluca U21 last-5 Elo change: +25.4.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Mazatlan FC U21 | Toluca U21 |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 20% | 67% |
| Attack | 11% | 100% |
| Defense | 0% | 33% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 1 | 0.2 | 11 | 2.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 14 | 2.8 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.20
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.70
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
76%
FT probability
2.5+
53%
FT probability
3.5+
38%
FT probability
BTTS
67%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Mazatlan FC U21 | Toluca U21 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 16 | 16 | 32 | 17 | 17 | 34 |
| Wins | 44% | 13% | 28% | 71% | 35% | 53% |
| Draws | 0% | 0% | 0% | 6% | 12% | 9% |
| Loses | 56% | 88% | 72% | 24% | 53% | 38% |
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Toluca U21WWWLLLWWLLWWWLWLWLDWWLWWWLLLDWWLWD
League goals
| Metric | Mazatlan FC U21 | Toluca U21 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 18 | 8 | 26 | 36 | 20 | 56 |
| GF avg | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| GA total | 23 | 37 | 60 | 22 | 22 | 44 |
| GA avg | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Mazatlan FC U21 | Toluca U21 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 47% | 81% | 79% | 79% |
| 1.5 | 25% | 50% | 53% | 38% |
| 2.5 | 6% | 34% | 18% | 9% |
| 3.5 | 3% | 19% | 12% | 3% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 3% | 3% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Mazatlan FC U21 | Toluca U21 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| Failed to score | 7 | 10 | 17 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
Penalties
| Metric | Mazatlan FC U21 | Toluca U21 |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 5 | 62.50% | 4 | 66.67% |
| Missed (total | %) | 3 | 37.50% | 2 | 33.33% |
| Total | 8 | 6 |
Streaks
| Metric | Mazatlan FC U21 | Toluca U21 |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 3 |
| Draws | 0 | 1 |
| Losses | 7 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 1-2 | 5-1 | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | 0-4 | 5-0 | 1-4 | 2-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 2 | 5 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Mazatlan FC U21 | Toluca U21 |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 23% | 77% |
| Att | 8% | 92% |
| Def | 30% | 70% |
| Poisson Distribution | 39% | 61% |
| H2h | 0% | 100% |
| Goals | 20% | 80% |
| Total | 24.0% | 76.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Mazatlan FC U21
vs
Toluca U21
Expected goals
0.92
Mazatlan FC U21 xG
League Avg: 1.56
Total
2.43
1.52
Toluca U21 xG
League Avg: 1.11
1x2 probabilities
Home
22.7%
Draw
25.9%
Away
50.8%
Best score tips
Tip
0 - 1
13.3%
Tip
1 - 1
12.2%
Tip
0 - 2
10.1%
More chances
1.5+
76%
Chance
2.5+
53%
Chance
3.5+
38%
Chance
BTTS
67%
Chance
🟨 Cards
0 - 0
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Mazatlan FC U21 = 0.92 (league 1.56), Toluca U21 = 1.52 (league 1.11)
| Toluca U21 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Mazatlan FC U21 | 0 | 8.8% | 13.3% | 10.1% | 5.1% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 8.0% | 12.2% | 9.2% | 4.7% | 1.8% | 0.5% | |
| 2 | 3.7% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 22.7% · Draw 25.9% · Away win 50.8%
vtt 1 , vtd1