Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 21:00 •
Stadion Omar Higinio Sperdutti
Expected Goals
2.47 (league 1.05)
0.59 (league 0.68)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 74.7% | 14.4% | 6.9% |
best score tips
2 - 0
14.3%
3 - 0
11.8%
1 - 0
11.6%
Score & goals probability table
| Almagro | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Deportivo Maipu | 0 | 4.7% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 11.6% | 6.8% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 14.3% | 8.4% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 11.8% | 7.0% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 7.3% | 4.3% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 3.6% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Deportivo Maipu carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 66 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Deportivo Maipu -28.9, Almagro -1.4.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Deportivo Maipu
vs
Almagro
Elo gapDeportivo Maipu +66
Home / draw / away46% / 23% / 31%
Expected home share59%
Combined Elo2907.5
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2907.5
Elo home share
59%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Deportivo Maipu | Almagro |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1469.1 | 1438.4 |
| Form Elo | 1448.3 | 1436.4 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1491.7 | 1456.2 |
| Attack Elo | 1463.2 | 1382.7 |
| Defense Elo | 1533.9 | 1524.8 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -28.9 | -1.4 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Deportivo Maipu last-5 Elo change: -28.9; Almagro last-5 Elo change: -1.4.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Deportivo Maipu | Almagro |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 27% | 40% |
| Attack | 31% | 31% |
| Defense | 62% | 38% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 4 | 0.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 8 | 1.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.70
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.70
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
65%
FT probability
2.5+
46%
FT probability
3.5+
33%
FT probability
BTTS
63%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-5
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Deportivo Maipu | Almagro | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 4 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 9 |
| Wins | 50% | 0% | 22% | 50% | 0% | 22% |
| Draws | 0% | 40% | 22% | 0% | 40% | 22% |
| Loses | 50% | 60% | 56% | 50% | 60% | 56% |
Deportivo MaipuLWDLLLLWD
AlmagroDLLDWWLLL
League goals
| Metric | Deportivo Maipu | Almagro | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 5 | 5 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| GF avg | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| GA total | 4 | 9 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 12 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Deportivo Maipu | Almagro | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 67% | 89% | 44% | 67% |
| 1.5 | 33% | 44% | 11% | 22% |
| 2.5 | 11% | 11% | 0% | 11% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 11% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 11% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Deportivo Maipu | Almagro | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
Penalties
| Metric | Deportivo Maipu | Almagro |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Deportivo Maipu | Almagro |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 2 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 4 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-1 | — | 2-0 | — |
| Biggest losses | 0-1 | 3-1 | 0-1 | 6-1 |
| Goals For | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Goals Against | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Deportivo Maipu | Almagro |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 40% | 60% |
| Att | 50% | 50% |
| Def | 62% | 38% |
| Poisson Distribution | 82% | 18% |
| H2h | 67% | 33% |
| Goals | 67% | 33% |
| Total | 61.3% | 38.7% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Deportivo Maipu
vs
Almagro
Expected goals
2.47
Deportivo Maipu xG
League Avg: 1.05
Total
3.06
0.59
Almagro xG
League Avg: 0.68
1x2 probabilities
Home
74.7%
Draw
14.4%
Away
6.9%
Best score tips
Tip
2 - 0
14.3%
Tip
3 - 0
11.8%
Tip
1 - 0
11.6%
More chances
1.5+
65%
Chance
2.5+
46%
Chance
3.5+
33%
Chance
BTTS
63%
Chance
🟨 Cards
2 - 5
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Deportivo Maipu = 2.47 (league 1.05), Almagro = 0.59 (league 0.68)
| Almagro | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Deportivo Maipu | 0 | 4.7% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 11.6% | 6.8% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 14.3% | 8.4% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 11.8% | 7.0% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 7.3% | 4.3% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 3.6% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 74.7% · Draw 14.4% · Away win 6.9%
vtt 1 , vtd1