Tue, Apr 21 2026 • 16:05 •
Department of Education Stadium
Expected Goals
0.62 (league 1.45)
1.28 (league 1.33)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 18.1% | 29.5% | 52.2% |
best score tips
0 - 1
19.1%
0 - 0
15.0%
0 - 2
12.2%
Score & goals probability table
| Al Bukayriyah | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Al Arabi SC | 0 | 15.0% | 19.1% | 12.2% | 5.2% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 9.3% | 11.9% | 7.6% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 2.9% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away strong edge
Al Bukayriyah carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 131 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Al Arabi SC -38.3, Al Bukayriyah -26.7.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Al Arabi SC
vs
Al Bukayriyah
Elo gapAl Bukayriyah +131
Home / draw / away26% / 18% / 56%
Expected home share32%
Combined Elo2796.5
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2796.5
Elo home share
32%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Al Arabi SC | Al Bukayriyah |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1315.3 | 1481.2 |
| Form Elo | 1279.5 | 1443.7 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1409.9 | 1507.4 |
| Attack Elo | 1333.6 | 1473.2 |
| Defense Elo | 1329.5 | 1506.3 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -38.3 | -26.7 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Al Arabi SC last-5 Elo change: -38.3; Al Bukayriyah last-5 Elo change: -26.7.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Al Arabi SC | Al Bukayriyah |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 0% | 40% |
| Attack | 23% | 38% |
| Defense | 8% | 46% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 12 | 2.4 | 7 | 1.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.60
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.60
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.30
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.20
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
69%
FT probability
2.5+
49%
FT probability
3.5+
35%
FT probability
BTTS
67%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Al Arabi SC | Al Bukayriyah | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 14 | 15 | 29 | 15 | 14 | 29 |
| Wins | 21% | 7% | 14% | 47% | 36% | 41% |
| Draws | 7% | 20% | 14% | 7% | 21% | 14% |
| Loses | 71% | 73% | 72% | 47% | 43% | 45% |
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Al BukayriyahWLLLWWWWWDLWWDWWLLLDLLLDLWLLW
League goals
| Metric | Al Arabi SC | Al Bukayriyah | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 8 | 7 | 15 | 18 | 14 | 32 |
| GF avg | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| GA total | 24 | 30 | 54 | 20 | 21 | 41 |
| GA avg | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Al Arabi SC | Al Bukayriyah | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 48% | 86% | 72% | 79% |
| 1.5 | 3% | 48% | 24% | 38% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 38% | 7% | 21% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 10% | 3% | 3% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 3% | 3% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Al Arabi SC | Al Bukayriyah | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| Failed to score | 7 | 8 | 15 | 3 | 5 | 8 |
Penalties
| Metric | Al Arabi SC | Al Bukayriyah |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 5 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 5 |
Streaks
| Metric | Al Arabi SC | Al Bukayriyah |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 5 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 8 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-1 | 0-1 | 5-1 | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | 1-4 | 5-1 | 0-4 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 2 | 1 | 5 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Al Arabi SC | Al Bukayriyah |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 0% | 100% |
| Att | 38% | 63% |
| Def | 37% | 63% |
| Poisson Distribution | 31% | 69% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 44% | 56% |
| Total | 40.0% | 60.2% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.93 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.48 @ Pinnacle
Away2.38 @ Unibet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.00 @ Unibet
Under 2.51.85 @ Bet365
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.77 @ Unibet
No2.05 @ Betfair
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Al Arabi SC
vs
Al Bukayriyah
Expected goals
0.62
Al Arabi SC xG
League Avg: 1.45
Total
1.90
1.28
Al Bukayriyah xG
League Avg: 1.33
1x2 probabilities
Home
18.1%
Draw
29.5%
Away
52.2%
Best score tips
Tip
0 - 1
19.1%
Tip
0 - 0
15.0%
Tip
0 - 2
12.2%
More chances
1.5+
69%
Chance
2.5+
49%
Chance
3.5+
35%
Chance
BTTS
67%
Chance
🟨 Cards
2 - 4
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Al Arabi SC = 0.62 (league 1.45), Al Bukayriyah = 1.28 (league 1.33)
| Al Bukayriyah | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Al Arabi SC | 0 | 15.0% | 19.1% | 12.2% | 5.2% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 9.3% | 11.9% | 7.6% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 2.9% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 18.1% · Draw 29.5% · Away win 52.2%
vtt 1 , vtd1