Expected Goals
0.28 (league 1.08)
0.77 (league 0.90)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 12.3% | 42.9% | 44.8% |
best score tips
0 - 0
34.9%
0 - 1
27.1%
0 - 2
10.5%
Score & goals probability table
| El Porvenir | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Fénix | 0 | 34.9% | 27.1% | 10.5% | 2.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 9.7% | 7.5% | 2.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away strong edge
El Porvenir carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 106 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Fénix +5.9, El Porvenir +2.3.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Fénix
vs
El Porvenir
Elo gapEl Porvenir +106
Home / draw / away29% / 18% / 53%
Expected home share35%
Combined Elo2879.5
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2879.5
Elo home share
35%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Fénix | El Porvenir |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1369.2 | 1510.3 |
| Form Elo | 1371.1 | 1512.5 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1435.7 | 1498.9 |
| Attack Elo | 1344.6 | 1452.4 |
| Defense Elo | 1398.9 | 1548.2 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +5.9 | +2.3 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Fénix last-5 Elo change: +5.9; El Porvenir last-5 Elo change: +2.3.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Fénix | El Porvenir |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 33% | 33% |
| Attack | 50% | 100% |
| Defense | 17% | 0% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.60
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.30
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.10
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.70
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
48%
FT probability
2.5+
34%
FT probability
3.5+
24%
FT probability
BTTS
54%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
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Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Fénix | El Porvenir | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 3 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| Wins | 0% | 25% | 14% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Draws | 67% | 25% | 43% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Loses | 33% | 50% | 43% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
FénixLDWDDLL
El PorvenirDDDDDDD
League goals
| Metric | Fénix | El Porvenir | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| GF avg | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| GA total | 2 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| GA avg | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Fénix | El Porvenir | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 43% | 57% | 71% | 71% |
| 1.5 | 14% | 29% | 29% | 29% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 14% | 0% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 14% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Fénix | El Porvenir | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Penalties
| Metric | Fénix | El Porvenir |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Fénix | El Porvenir |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 0 |
| Draws | 2 | 7 |
| Losses | 1 | 0 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | — | 0-1 | — | — |
| Biggest losses | 0-1 | 4-2 | — | — |
| Goals For | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Fénix | El Porvenir |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 50% | 50% |
| Att | 33% | 67% |
| Def | 55% | 45% |
| Poisson Distribution | 36% | 64% |
| H2h | 0% | 100% |
| Goals | 0% | 100% |
| Total | 43.5% | 56.5% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Fénix
vs
El Porvenir
Expected goals
0.28
Fénix xG
League Avg: 1.08
Total
1.05
0.77
El Porvenir xG
League Avg: 0.90
1x2 probabilities
Home
12.3%
Draw
42.9%
Away
44.8%
Best score tips
Tip
0 - 0
34.9%
Tip
0 - 1
27.1%
Tip
0 - 2
10.5%
More chances
1.5+
48%
Chance
2.5+
34%
Chance
3.5+
24%
Chance
BTTS
54%
Chance
🟨 Cards
—
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Fénix = 0.28 (league 1.08), El Porvenir = 0.77 (league 0.90)
| El Porvenir | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Fénix | 0 | 34.9% | 27.1% | 10.5% | 2.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 9.7% | 7.5% | 2.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 12.3% · Draw 42.9% · Away win 44.8%
vtt 1 , vtd1