Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 05:00 •
Kumagaya Athletic Stadium
Expected Goals
0.55 (league 1.46)
1.76 (league 1.19)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 10.9% | 22.1% | 66.0% |
best score tips
0 - 1
17.5%
0 - 2
15.4%
0 - 0
10.0%
Score & goals probability table
| Albirex Niigata W | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Elfen Saitama W | 0 | 10.0% | 17.5% | 15.4% | 9.1% | 4.0% | 1.4% |
| 1 | 5.4% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 4.9% | 2.2% | 0.8% | |
| 2 | 1.5% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away lean
Albirex Niigata W carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 41 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Elfen Saitama W +1.2, Albirex Niigata W -19.4.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Elfen Saitama W
vs
Albirex Niigata W
Elo gapAlbirex Niigata W +41
Home / draw / away33% / 25% / 42%
Expected home share44%
Combined Elo2935.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2935.3
Elo home share
44%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Elfen Saitama W | Albirex Niigata W |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1429.9 | 1505.4 |
| Form Elo | 1423.5 | 1486.5 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1461.5 | 1532.2 |
| Attack Elo | 1438.6 | 1492.1 |
| Defense Elo | 1437.6 | 1494.4 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +1.2 | -19.4 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Elfen Saitama W last-5 Elo change: +1.2; Albirex Niigata W last-5 Elo change: -19.4.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Elfen Saitama W | Albirex Niigata W |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 40% | 53% |
| Attack | 56% | 89% |
| Defense | 67% | 22% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 7 | 1.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.90
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.10
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.90
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.70
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
69%
FT probability
2.5+
48%
FT probability
3.5+
34%
FT probability
BTTS
60%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Elfen Saitama W | Albirex Niigata W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 9 | 9 | 18 | 9 | 9 | 18 |
| Wins | 11% | 22% | 17% | 33% | 56% | 44% |
| Draws | 22% | 11% | 17% | 22% | 11% | 17% |
| Loses | 67% | 67% | 67% | 44% | 33% | 39% |
Elfen Saitama WDDLLLLDLLLWLLLWLLW
Albirex Niigata WWLWLWDWLLWLLWLWWDD
League goals
| Metric | Elfen Saitama W | Albirex Niigata W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 9 | 5 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 20 |
| GF avg | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| GA total | 17 | 14 | 31 | 15 | 7 | 22 |
| GA avg | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 1.2 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Elfen Saitama W | Albirex Niigata W | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 50% | 72% | 67% | 61% |
| 1.5 | 17% | 50% | 28% | 28% |
| 2.5 | 6% | 33% | 17% | 17% |
| 3.5 | 6% | 11% | 0% | 11% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 6% | 0% | 6% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Elfen Saitama W | Albirex Niigata W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 7 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
Penalties
| Metric | Elfen Saitama W | Albirex Niigata W |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Elfen Saitama W | Albirex Niigata W |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 4 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 0-2 | 3-0 | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | 1-4 | 5-0 | 0-5 | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 5 | 5 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Elfen Saitama W | Albirex Niigata W |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 43% | 57% |
| Att | 38% | 62% |
| Def | 70% | 30% |
| Poisson Distribution | 22% | 78% |
| H2h | 0% | 100% |
| Goals | 14% | 86% |
| Total | 37.4% | 62.6% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Elfen Saitama W
vs
Albirex Niigata W
Expected goals
0.55
Elfen Saitama W xG
League Avg: 1.46
Total
2.31
1.76
Albirex Niigata W xG
League Avg: 1.19
1x2 probabilities
Home
10.9%
Draw
22.1%
Away
66.0%
Best score tips
Tip
0 - 1
17.5%
Tip
0 - 2
15.4%
Tip
0 - 0
10.0%
More chances
1.5+
69%
Chance
2.5+
48%
Chance
3.5+
34%
Chance
BTTS
60%
Chance
🟨 Cards
0 - 0
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Elfen Saitama W = 0.55 (league 1.46), Albirex Niigata W = 1.76 (league 1.19)
| Albirex Niigata W | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Elfen Saitama W | 0 | 10.0% | 17.5% | 15.4% | 9.1% | 4.0% | 1.4% |
| 1 | 5.4% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 4.9% | 2.2% | 0.8% | |
| 2 | 1.5% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 10.9% · Draw 22.1% · Away win 66.0%
vtt 1 , vtd1