Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 14:30 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
1.18 (league 1.53)
1.60 (league 1.31)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 28.0% | 24.8% | 46.5% |
best score tips
1 - 1
11.7%
0 - 1
9.9%
1 - 2
9.4%
Score & goals probability table
| Rio Ave U19 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| União Leiria U19 | 0 | 6.2% | 9.9% | 8.0% | 4.2% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 7.3% | 11.7% | 9.4% | 5.0% | 2.0% | 0.6% | |
| 2 | 4.3% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.4% | |
| 3 | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
União Leiria U19 carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 33 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: União Leiria U19 +3.4, Rio Ave U19 -1.4.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
União Leiria U19
vs
Rio Ave U19
Elo gapUnião Leiria U19 +33
Home / draw / away41% / 26% / 33%
Expected home share55%
Combined Elo3069.1
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3069.1
Elo home share
55%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | União Leiria U19 | Rio Ave U19 |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1533.3 | 1535.8 |
| Form Elo | 1534.7 | 1537 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1522.3 | 1528.8 |
| Attack Elo | 1536 | 1578.2 |
| Defense Elo | 1471.9 | 1445 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +3.4 | -1.4 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. União Leiria U19 last-5 Elo change: +3.4; Rio Ave U19 last-5 Elo change: -1.4.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | União Leiria U19 | Rio Ave U19 |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 40% | 60% |
| Attack | 50% | 43% |
| Defense | 50% | 43% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 8 | 1.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.90
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.10
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.70
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
84%
FT probability
2.5+
59%
FT probability
3.5+
42%
FT probability
BTTS
76%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | União Leiria U19 | Rio Ave U19 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 13 | 15 | 28 | 15 | 12 | 27 |
| Wins | 38% | 33% | 36% | 53% | 58% | 56% |
| Draws | 31% | 33% | 32% | 7% | 8% | 7% |
| Loses | 31% | 33% | 32% | 40% | 33% | 37% |
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Rio Ave U19DWLWLWWLLLWWWLLWWWWLDWLWWWL
League goals
| Metric | União Leiria U19 | Rio Ave U19 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 20 | 20 | 40 | 25 | 17 | 42 |
| GF avg | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| GA total | 19 | 23 | 42 | 30 | 14 | 44 |
| GA avg | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 1.6 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | União Leiria U19 | Rio Ave U19 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 79% | 79% | 89% | 81% |
| 1.5 | 36% | 39% | 48% | 41% |
| 2.5 | 18% | 21% | 15% | 15% |
| 3.5 | 4% | 7% | 4% | 7% |
| 4.5 | 4% | 4% | 0% | 4% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | União Leiria U19 | Rio Ave U19 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
Penalties
| Metric | União Leiria U19 | Rio Ave U19 |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 5 | 100.00% | 3 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 5 | 3 |
Streaks
| Metric | União Leiria U19 | Rio Ave U19 |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 4 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 4 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 6-3 | 0-3 | 3-0 | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | 1-4 | 5-0 | 2-9 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 6 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 5 | 9 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | União Leiria U19 | Rio Ave U19 |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 40% | 60% |
| Att | 54% | 46% |
| Def | 53% | 47% |
| Poisson Distribution | 45% | 55% |
| H2h | 0% | 100% |
| Goals | 0% | 100% |
| Total | 48.0% | 52.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
União Leiria U19
vs
Rio Ave U19
Expected goals
1.18
União Leiria U19 xG
League Avg: 1.53
Total
2.78
1.60
Rio Ave U19 xG
League Avg: 1.31
1x2 probabilities
Home
28.0%
Draw
24.8%
Away
46.5%
Best score tips
Tip
1 - 1
11.7%
Tip
0 - 1
9.9%
Tip
1 - 2
9.4%
More chances
1.5+
84%
Chance
2.5+
59%
Chance
3.5+
42%
Chance
BTTS
76%
Chance
🟨 Cards
—
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): União Leiria U19 = 1.18 (league 1.53), Rio Ave U19 = 1.60 (league 1.31)
| Rio Ave U19 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| União Leiria U19 | 0 | 6.2% | 9.9% | 8.0% | 4.2% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 7.3% | 11.7% | 9.4% | 5.0% | 2.0% | 0.6% | |
| 2 | 4.3% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.4% | |
| 3 | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 28.0% · Draw 24.8% · Away win 46.5%
vtt 1 , vtd1