OFC Pro League
— World
Tue, Apr 21 2026 • 07:00 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
2.80 (league 1.82)
1.13 (league 1.06)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 65.5% | 15.2% | 12.6% |
best score tips
2 - 1
8.7%
3 - 1
8.1%
2 - 0
7.7%
Score & goals probability table
| Tahiti United | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| South Melbourne | 0 | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 5.2% | 5.9% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 7.5% | 8.5% | 4.8% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 7.2% | 8.2% | 4.6% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 5.2% | 5.9% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 3.0% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
South Melbourne carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 81 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: South Melbourne -5.8, Tahiti United +14.0.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
South Melbourne
vs
Tahiti United
Elo gapSouth Melbourne +81
Home / draw / away48% / 21% / 31%
Expected home share61%
Combined Elo3094.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3094.3
Elo home share
61%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | South Melbourne | Tahiti United |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1570 | 1524.3 |
| Form Elo | 1565.9 | 1544.5 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1513.5 | 1494.5 |
| Attack Elo | 1560.2 | 1549.4 |
| Defense Elo | 1507 | 1495.7 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -5.8 | +14.0 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. South Melbourne last-5 Elo change: -5.8; Tahiti United last-5 Elo change: +14.0.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | South Melbourne | Tahiti United |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 27% | 53% |
| Attack | 50% | 92% |
| Defense | 33% | 33% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 11 | 2.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 8 | 1.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.20
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.80
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.70
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
69%
FT probability
3.5+
49%
FT probability
BTTS
75%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | South Melbourne | Tahiti United | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 6 | 7 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 13 |
| Wins | 67% | 29% | 46% | 57% | 0% | 31% |
| Draws | 17% | 43% | 31% | 14% | 67% | 38% |
| Loses | 17% | 29% | 23% | 29% | 33% | 31% |
South MelbourneWWDDWDWWLDLWL
Tahiti UnitedLDDLWDLWLDWDW
League goals
| Metric | South Melbourne | Tahiti United | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 18 | 14 | 32 | 12 | 7 | 19 |
| GF avg | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| GA total | 6 | 11 | 17 | 10 | 10 | 20 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.5 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | South Melbourne | Tahiti United | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 92% | 77% | 69% | 77% |
| 1.5 | 62% | 38% | 46% | 54% |
| 2.5 | 38% | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| 3.5 | 31% | 0% | 8% | 8% |
| 4.5 | 23% | 0% | 8% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | South Melbourne | Tahiti United | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
Penalties
| Metric | South Melbourne | Tahiti United |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | South Melbourne | Tahiti United |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 1 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 1 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-0 | 0-5 | 5-1 | — |
| Biggest losses | 1-2 | 2-0 | 0-4 | 2-0 |
| Goals For | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | South Melbourne | Tahiti United |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 33% | 67% |
| Att | 35% | 65% |
| Def | 50% | 50% |
| Poisson Distribution | 76% | 24% |
| H2h | 100% | 0% |
| Goals | 67% | 33% |
| Total | 52.2% | 47.8% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
South Melbourne
vs
Tahiti United
Expected goals
2.80
South Melbourne xG
League Avg: 1.82
Total
3.93
1.13
Tahiti United xG
League Avg: 1.06
1x2 probabilities
Home
65.5%
Draw
15.2%
Away
12.6%
Best score tips
Tip
2 - 1
8.7%
Tip
3 - 1
8.1%
Tip
2 - 0
7.7%
More chances
1.5+
95%
Chance
2.5+
69%
Chance
3.5+
49%
Chance
BTTS
75%
Chance
🟨 Cards
0 - 0
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): South Melbourne = 2.88 (league 1.77), Tahiti United = 1.14 (league 1.06)
| Tahiti United | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| South Melbourne | 0 | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 5.2% | 5.9% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 7.5% | 8.5% | 4.8% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 7.2% | 8.2% | 4.6% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 5.2% | 5.9% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 3.0% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 66.0% · Draw 14.7% · Away win 12.0%
vtt 4 , vtd1