Wed, Apr 22 2026 • 15:45 •
Hiiu Stadium
Expected Goals
2.95 (league 1.79)
0.36 (league 1.38)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 81.0% | 8.6% | 2.5% |
best score tips
2 - 0
16.0%
3 - 0
15.7%
4 - 0
11.6%
Score & goals probability table
| Nõmme United | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Kalju Nomme | 0 | 3.7% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 10.8% | 3.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 16.0% | 5.7% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 15.7% | 5.6% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 11.6% | 4.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 6.8% | 2.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Kalju Nomme carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 56 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Kalju Nomme +5.3, Nõmme United -12.5.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Kalju Nomme
vs
Nõmme United
Elo gapKalju Nomme +56
Home / draw / away44% / 24% / 32%
Expected home share58%
Combined Elo3339.2
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3339.2
Elo home share
58%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Kalju Nomme | Nõmme United |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1680 | 1659.2 |
| Form Elo | 1690.4 | 1649.3 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1555.9 | 1575.6 |
| Attack Elo | 1722.5 | 2077.1 |
| Defense Elo | 1746.9 | 1606.3 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +5.3 | -12.5 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Kalju Nomme last-5 Elo change: +5.3; Nõmme United last-5 Elo change: -12.5.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Kalju Nomme | Nõmme United |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 67% | 27% |
| Attack | 82% | 91% |
| Defense | 73% | 9% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 10 | 2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 10 | 2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
89%
FT probability
2.5+
62%
FT probability
3.5+
44%
FT probability
BTTS
77%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Kalju Nomme | Nõmme United | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 3 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| Wins | 67% | 75% | 71% | 50% | 0% | 29% |
| Draws | 33% | 0% | 14% | 0% | 33% | 14% |
| Loses | 0% | 25% | 14% | 50% | 67% | 57% |
Kalju NommeWWWWWDL
Nõmme UnitedLWLDLWL
League goals
| Metric | Kalju Nomme | Nõmme United | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 7 | 4 | 11 | 15 | 2 | 17 |
| GF avg | 2.3 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 3.8 | 0.7 | 2.4 |
| GA total | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 14 |
| GA avg | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 2.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Kalju Nomme | Nõmme United | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 86% | 43% | 86% | 100% |
| 1.5 | 43% | 0% | 43% | 57% |
| 2.5 | 14% | 0% | 29% | 43% |
| 3.5 | 14% | 0% | 29% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 29% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Kalju Nomme | Nõmme United | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Penalties
| Metric | Kalju Nomme | Nõmme United |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | Kalju Nomme | Nõmme United |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 5 | 1 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 0 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 0-2 | 7-1 | — |
| Biggest losses | — | 1-0 | 2-3 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 2 | 7 | 1 |
| Goals Against | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Kalju Nomme | Nõmme United |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 71% | 29% |
| Att | 47% | 53% |
| Def | 77% | 23% |
| Poisson Distribution | 88% | 12% |
| H2h | 80% | 20% |
| Goals | 89% | 11% |
| Total | 75.3% | 24.7% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.43 @ Dafabet
Draw4.90 @ Unibet
Away7.16 @ 1xBet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.47 @ Betfair
Under 2.52.63 @ Betfair
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.67 @ Betfair
No2.10 @ Betfair
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Kalju Nomme
vs
Nõmme United
Expected goals
2.95
Kalju Nomme xG
League Avg: 1.79
Total
3.31
0.36
Nõmme United xG
League Avg: 1.38
1x2 probabilities
Home
81.0%
Draw
8.6%
Away
2.5%
Best score tips
Tip
2 - 0
16.0%
Tip
3 - 0
15.7%
Tip
4 - 0
11.6%
More chances
1.5+
89%
Chance
2.5+
62%
Chance
3.5+
44%
Chance
BTTS
77%
Chance
🟨 Cards
2 - 4
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Kalju Nomme = 2.95 (league 1.79), Nõmme United = 0.36 (league 1.38)
| Nõmme United | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Kalju Nomme | 0 | 3.7% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 10.8% | 3.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 16.0% | 5.7% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 15.7% | 5.6% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 11.6% | 4.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 6.8% | 2.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 81.0% · Draw 8.6% · Away win 2.5%
vtt 1 , vtd1