Fri, Apr 24 2026 • 14:00 •
Yoshlar Sport Majmuasi
Expected Goals
0.74 (league 1.40)
2.04 (league 1.13)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 12.6% | 19.8% | 65.8% |
best score tips
0 - 2
12.9%
0 - 1
12.6%
1 - 2
9.6%
Score & goals probability table
| Kokand-1912 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Qizilqum | 0 | 6.2% | 12.6% | 12.9% | 8.7% | 4.5% | 1.8% |
| 1 | 4.6% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 6.5% | 3.3% | 1.4% | |
| 2 | 1.7% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.5% | |
| 3 | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Balanced Elo outlook
Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Qizilqum -33.9, Kokand-1912 +8.1.
Thin confidence
Upset risk: High
Elo standalone
Qizilqum
vs
Kokand-1912
Elo gapQizilqum +11
Home / draw / away37% / 29% / 34%
Expected home share52%
Combined Elo2926.9
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Balanced Elo outlook
Confidence band
Thin confidence
Upset risk
High
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2926.9
Elo home share
52%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Qizilqum | Kokand-1912 |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1451.2 | 1475.7 |
| Form Elo | 1440.5 | 1478.5 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1479.3 | 1476 |
| Attack Elo | 1413.8 | 1398.4 |
| Defense Elo | 1407.7 | 1530.3 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -33.9 | +8.1 |
The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Qizilqum last-5 Elo change: -33.9; Kokand-1912 last-5 Elo change: +8.1.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Qizilqum | Kokand-1912 |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 20% | 47% |
| Attack | 13% | 47% |
| Defense | 33% | 60% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.4 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 10 | 2 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.80
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.60
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
71%
FT probability
2.5+
50%
FT probability
3.5+
35%
FT probability
BTTS
64%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Qizilqum | Kokand-1912 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 4 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
| Wins | 25% | 50% | 38% | 25% | 0% | 13% |
| Draws | 0% | 0% | 0% | 50% | 75% | 63% |
| Loses | 75% | 50% | 63% | 25% | 25% | 25% |
QizilqumLWWLLLLW
Kokand-1912LLDWDDDD
League goals
| Metric | Qizilqum | Kokand-1912 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 3 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
| GF avg | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| GA total | 9 | 4 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 9 |
| GA avg | 2.3 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Qizilqum | Kokand-1912 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 50% | 75% | 63% | 75% |
| 1.5 | 25% | 50% | 38% | 38% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 25% | 0% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 13% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Qizilqum | Kokand-1912 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
Penalties
| Metric | Qizilqum | Kokand-1912 |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 3 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 3 |
Streaks
| Metric | Qizilqum | Kokand-1912 |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 1 |
| Draws | 0 | 1 |
| Losses | 4 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-1 | 0-2 | 2-1 | — |
| Biggest losses | 0-4 | 2-0 | 1-2 | 1-0 |
| Goals For | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Qizilqum | Kokand-1912 |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 30% | 70% |
| Att | 22% | 78% |
| Def | 38% | 63% |
| Poisson Distribution | 28% | 72% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 36.3% | 63.8% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Qizilqum
vs
Kokand-1912
Expected goals
0.74
Qizilqum xG
League Avg: 1.40
Total
2.78
2.04
Kokand-1912 xG
League Avg: 1.13
1x2 probabilities
Home
12.6%
Draw
19.8%
Away
65.8%
Best score tips
Tip
0 - 2
12.9%
Tip
0 - 1
12.6%
Tip
1 - 2
9.6%
More chances
1.5+
71%
Chance
2.5+
50%
Chance
3.5+
35%
Chance
BTTS
64%
Chance
🟨 Cards
2 - 4
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Qizilqum = 0.74 (league 1.40), Kokand-1912 = 2.04 (league 1.13)
| Kokand-1912 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Qizilqum | 0 | 6.2% | 12.6% | 12.9% | 8.7% | 4.5% | 1.8% |
| 1 | 4.6% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 6.5% | 3.3% | 1.4% | |
| 2 | 1.7% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.5% | |
| 3 | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 12.6% · Draw 19.8% · Away win 65.8%
vtt 1 , vtd1