Premier League
— Uganda
Fri, Apr 24 2026 • 17:00 •
Hamz Stadium
Expected Goals
1.27 (league 1.34)
0.96 (league 0.84)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 43.3% | 28.5% | 28.0% |
best score tips
1 - 0
13.7%
1 - 1
13.1%
0 - 0
10.8%
Score & goals probability table
| BUL | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Express | 0 | 10.8% | 10.3% | 5.0% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 13.7% | 13.1% | 6.3% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 8.7% | 8.3% | 4.0% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 3.7% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away edge
BUL carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 54 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Express +33.2, BUL -2.0.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Express
vs
BUL
Elo gapBUL +54
Home / draw / away32% / 24% / 44%
Expected home share42%
Combined Elo3034.9
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3034.9
Elo home share
42%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Express | BUL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1472.8 | 1562.1 |
| Form Elo | 1484 | 1564.2 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1499.5 | 1536.5 |
| Attack Elo | 1439.3 | 1523.2 |
| Defense Elo | 1481.5 | 1617.9 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +33.2 | -2.0 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Express last-5 Elo change: +33.2; BUL last-5 Elo change: -2.0.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Express | BUL |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 67% | 53% |
| Attack | 70% | 70% |
| Defense | 50% | 70% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.10
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.60
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.90
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
61%
FT probability
2.5+
43%
FT probability
3.5+
31%
FT probability
BTTS
61%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
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Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Express | BUL | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 11 | 12 | 23 | 11 | 12 | 23 |
| Wins | 55% | 8% | 30% | 36% | 33% | 35% |
| Draws | 18% | 50% | 35% | 36% | 25% | 30% |
| Loses | 27% | 42% | 35% | 27% | 42% | 35% |
ExpressWLDLDWDLWLLLWLDDDDDLWWW
BULDWDWDDLLLLLWWLWDLWWWDLD
League goals
| Metric | Express | BUL | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 19 | 3 | 22 | 14 | 11 | 25 |
| GF avg | 1.7 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| GA total | 10 | 13 | 23 | 10 | 12 | 22 |
| GA avg | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Express | BUL | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 43% | 61% | 74% | 61% |
| 1.5 | 22% | 22% | 17% | 26% |
| 2.5 | 22% | 13% | 9% | 9% |
| 3.5 | 9% | 4% | 4% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 4% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Express | BUL | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 9 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 9 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
Penalties
| Metric | Express | BUL |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Express | BUL |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 3 |
| Draws | 5 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 5 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 0-1 | 5-1 | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 4-0 | 1-3 | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 4 | 1 | 5 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Express | BUL |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 56% | 44% |
| Att | 50% | 50% |
| Def | 38% | 63% |
| Poisson Distribution | 56% | 44% |
| H2h | 25% | 75% |
| Goals | 25% | 75% |
| Total | 41.7% | 58.5% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Express
vs
BUL
Expected goals
1.27
Express xG
League Avg: 1.34
Total
2.23
0.96
BUL xG
League Avg: 0.84
1x2 probabilities
Home
43.3%
Draw
28.5%
Away
28.0%
Best score tips
Tip
1 - 0
13.7%
Tip
1 - 1
13.1%
Tip
0 - 0
10.8%
More chances
1.5+
61%
Chance
2.5+
43%
Chance
3.5+
31%
Chance
BTTS
61%
Chance
🟨 Cards
—
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Express = 1.27 (league 1.34), BUL = 0.96 (league 0.84)
| BUL | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Express | 0 | 10.8% | 10.3% | 5.0% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 13.7% | 13.1% | 6.3% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 8.7% | 8.3% | 4.0% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 3.7% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 43.3% · Draw 28.5% · Away win 28.0%
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