Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs Kagoshima United

J2/J3 League — Japan

Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 05:00 • Unilever Stadium Shintomi

Not Started

home	draw	away
51.9%	37.8%	10.3%

		Kagoshima United
Tegevajaro Miyazaki	0	29.8%	8.0%	1.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
1	28.1%	7.5%	1.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
2	13.3%	3.5%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
3	4.2%	1.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
4	1.0%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
5	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Home strong edge

Tegevajaro Miyazaki carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 87 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Tegevajaro Miyazaki +20.4, Kagoshima United +23.7.

Strong confidence Upset risk: Low Elo standalone

Tegevajaro Miyazaki Elo 1618.2 · +20.4

Kagoshima United Elo 1565.8 · +23.7

Elo gapTegevajaro Miyazaki +87

Home / draw / away50% / 20% / 30%

Expected home share62%

Combined Elo3184

Deep Elo analysisOpen

Structural edge Home strong edge

Confidence band Strong confidence

Upset risk Low

Model agreement Elo standalone

Combined Elo 3184

Elo home share 62%

Match tone Upset Watch

Metric	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	Kagoshima United
Overall Elo	1618.2	1565.8
Form Elo	1641.3	1586.8
Home / Away Elo	1534.7	1524.6
Attack Elo	1644.3	1558.3
Defense Elo	1597.3	1582.1
Last 5 Elo change	+20.4	+23.7

This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Tegevajaro Miyazaki last-5 Elo change: +20.4; Kagoshima United last-5 Elo change: +23.7.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

Metric	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	Kagoshima United
Played	5	5
Form	80%	80%
Attack	77%	62%
Defense	92%	69%
Goals For (tot \| avg)	10 \| 2	8 \| 1.6
Goals Against (tot \| avg)	1 \| 0.2	4 \| 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.70

Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.80

Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.40

Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.00

Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

64%

FT probability

2.5+

45%

FT probability

3.5+

32%

FT probability

BTTS

63%

FT probability

Yellow Cards

1-2

Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric	Tegevajaro Miyazaki			Kagoshima United
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Played	5	6	11	6	5	11
Wins	100%	83%	91%	83%	60%	73%
Draws	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Loses	0%	17%	9%	17%	40%	27%

Tegevajaro MiyazakiWWWWWWWLWWW

Kagoshima UnitedLWWWLWWWWWL

League goals

Metric	Tegevajaro Miyazaki			Kagoshima United
	H	A	T	H	A	T
GF total	10	14	24	12	4	16
GF avg	2.0	2.3	2.2	2.0	0.8	1.5
GA total	2	5	7	6	3	9
GA avg	0.4	0.8	0.6	1.0	0.6	0.8

Under/Over distribution (percent)

Line	Tegevajaro Miyazaki		Kagoshima United
	For	Against	For	Against
0.5	91%	45%	91%	55%
1.5	64%	18%	36%	18%
2.5	45%	0%	18%	9%
3.5	9%	0%	0%	0%
4.5	9%	0%	0%	0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

Metric	Tegevajaro Miyazaki			Kagoshima United
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Clean sheets	3	3	6	2	3	5
Failed to score	0	1	1	0	1	1

Penalties

Metric	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	Kagoshima United
Scored (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	1 \| 100.00%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	0	1

Streaks

Metric	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	Kagoshima United
Wins	7	5
Draws	0	0
Losses	1	1

Biggest results (H/A)

Metric	H	A	H	A
Biggest wins	3-0	0-5	3-1	0-1
Biggest losses	—	1-0	2-3	2-1
Goals For	3	5	3	1
Goals Against	1	2	3	2

Model comparison

Metric	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	Kagoshima United
Form	50%	50%
Att	56%	44%
Def	80%	20%
Poisson Distribution	77%	23%
H2h	71%	29%
Goals	56%	44%
Total	65.0%	35.0%

💸

Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

📊

League standings

Loading standings…

League page • Country page • Venue page • Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs Kagoshima United

footywow.com

Prediction and Tips for:

Tegevajaro Miyazaki

Kagoshima United

J2/J3 League • Japan • Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 05:00 • Unilever Stadium Shintomi

Expected goals

0.94

Tegevajaro Miyazaki xG League Avg: 1.27

Total

1.21

0.27

Kagoshima United xG League Avg: 1.20

1x2 probabilities

Home

51.9%

Draw

37.8%

Away

10.3%

Best score tips

Tip

0 - 0

29.8%

Tip

1 - 0

28.1%

Tip

2 - 0

13.3%

More chances

1.5+

64%

Chance

2.5+

45%

Chance

3.5+

32%

Chance

BTTS

63%

Chance

🟨 Cards

1 - 2

Exp.

#TegevajaroMiyazaki #KagoshimaUnited #J2J3League #footballpredictions #footywow

Expected goals (λ): Tegevajaro Miyazaki = 0.94 (league 1.27), Kagoshima United = 0.27 (league 1.20)

		Kagoshima United
		0	1	2	3	4	5
Tegevajaro Miyazaki	0	29.8%	8.0%	1.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
	1	28.1%	7.5%	1.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
	2	13.3%	3.5%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
	3	4.2%	1.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
	4	1.0%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
	5	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 51.9% · Draw 37.8% · Away win 10.3%

vtt 1 , vtd1

Metric	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	Kagoshima United
Scored (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	1 \| 100.00%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	0	1

Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs Kagoshima United