Fri, Apr 24 2026 • 23:00 •
CEPSUM Stadium
Expected Goals
1.04 (league 1.44)
1.31 (league 1.14)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 29.5% | 27.7% | 42.5% |
best score tips
1 - 1
13.0%
0 - 1
12.5%
1 - 0
9.9%
Score & goals probability table
| HFX Wanderers FC | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Supra du Quebec | 0 | 9.5% | 12.5% | 8.2% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 9.9% | 13.0% | 8.5% | 3.7% | 1.2% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 5.2% | 6.8% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 1.8% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away lean
HFX Wanderers FC carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 20 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Supra du Quebec -12.8, HFX Wanderers FC +0.3.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Supra du Quebec
vs
HFX Wanderers FC
Elo gapHFX Wanderers FC +20
Home / draw / away34% / 28% / 38%
Expected home share47%
Combined Elo3029.7
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3029.7
Elo home share
47%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Supra du Quebec | HFX Wanderers FC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1487.2 | 1542.5 |
| Form Elo | 1429.6 | 1543.9 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1492.1 | 1514.9 |
| Attack Elo | 1487 | 1544.3 |
| Defense Elo | 1501.9 | 1564.6 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -12.8 | +0.3 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Supra du Quebec last-5 Elo change: -12.8; HFX Wanderers FC last-5 Elo change: +0.3.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Supra du Quebec | HFX Wanderers FC |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 2 | 3 |
| Form | 50% | 56% |
| Attack | 43% | 71% |
| Defense | 57% | 43% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 3 | 1.5 | 5 | 1.7 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 1.5 | 4 | 1.3 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.20
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.50
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.80
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
68%
FT probability
2.5+
48%
FT probability
3.5+
34%
FT probability
BTTS
66%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Supra du Quebec | HFX Wanderers FC | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Wins | 0% | 100% | 50% | 0% | 50% | 33% |
| Draws | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 50% | 67% |
| Loses | 100% | 0% | 50% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Supra du QuebecWL
HFX Wanderers FCWDD
League goals
| Metric | Supra du Quebec | HFX Wanderers FC | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| GF avg | 0.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| GA total | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Supra du Quebec | HFX Wanderers FC | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 50% | 100% | 100% | 67% |
| 1.5 | 50% | 50% | 67% | 67% |
| 2.5 | 50% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Supra du Quebec | HFX Wanderers FC | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Penalties
| Metric | Supra du Quebec | HFX Wanderers FC |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Supra du Quebec | HFX Wanderers FC |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 1 |
| Draws | 0 | 0 |
| Losses | 0 | 0 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | — | 2-3 | — | 0-1 |
| Biggest losses | 0-1 | — | — | — |
| Goals For | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Supra du Quebec | HFX Wanderers FC |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 38% | 63% |
| Att | 38% | 63% |
| Def | 57% | 43% |
| Poisson Distribution | 0% | 100% |
| H2h | 0% | 0% |
| Goals | 0% | 0% |
| Total | 44.3% | 56.3% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Supra du Quebec
vs
HFX Wanderers FC
Expected goals
1.04
Supra du Quebec xG
League Avg: 1.44
Total
2.35
1.31
HFX Wanderers FC xG
League Avg: 1.14
1x2 probabilities
Home
29.5%
Draw
27.7%
Away
42.5%
Best score tips
Tip
1 - 1
13.0%
Tip
0 - 1
12.5%
Tip
1 - 0
9.9%
More chances
1.5+
68%
Chance
2.5+
48%
Chance
3.5+
34%
Chance
BTTS
66%
Chance
🟨 Cards
2 - 4
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Supra du Quebec = 1.04 (league 1.44), HFX Wanderers FC = 1.31 (league 1.14)
| HFX Wanderers FC | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Supra du Quebec | 0 | 9.5% | 12.5% | 8.2% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 9.9% | 13.0% | 8.5% | 3.7% | 1.2% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 5.2% | 6.8% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 1.8% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 29.5% · Draw 27.7% · Away win 42.5%
vtt 1 , vtd1