Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 11:00 •
Quy Nhon Stadium
Expected Goals
1.27 (league 1.38)
1.40 (league 0.91)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 33.8% | 25.9% | 39.7% |
best score tips
1 - 1
12.3%
0 - 1
9.7%
1 - 0
8.8%
Score & goals probability table
| Bình Phước | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Binh Dinh | 0 | 6.9% | 9.7% | 6.8% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 8.8% | 12.3% | 8.6% | 4.0% | 1.4% | 0.4% | |
| 2 | 5.6% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 2.4% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away lean
Bình Phước carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 38 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Binh Dinh +58.1, Bình Phước +37.2.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Binh Dinh
vs
Bình Phước
Elo gapBình Phước +38
Home / draw / away33% / 26% / 41%
Expected home share45%
Combined Elo3079.4
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3079.4
Elo home share
45%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Binh Dinh | Bình Phước |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1503.4 | 1576 |
| Form Elo | 1542.1 | 1602.5 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1515.4 | 1512.8 |
| Attack Elo | 1555.7 | 1536.6 |
| Defense Elo | 1455.8 | 1574.4 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +58.1 | +37.2 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Binh Dinh last-5 Elo change: +58.1; Bình Phước last-5 Elo change: +37.2.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Binh Dinh | Bình Phước |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 87% | 73% |
| Attack | 92% | 83% |
| Defense | 75% | 83% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 11 | 2.2 | 10 | 2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 2 | 0.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.90
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.10
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.80
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
81%
FT probability
2.5+
57%
FT probability
3.5+
40%
FT probability
BTTS
73%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Binh Dinh | Bình Phước | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 8 | 7 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 14 |
| Wins | 88% | 14% | 53% | 71% | 57% | 64% |
| Draws | 13% | 29% | 20% | 29% | 43% | 36% |
| Loses | 0% | 57% | 27% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Binh DinhDLWLWWLDWLWWWWD
Bình PhướcDWWWDWWWDWDWWD
League goals
| Metric | Binh Dinh | Bình Phước | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 20 | 8 | 28 | 17 | 11 | 28 |
| GF avg | 2.5 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| GA total | 6 | 11 | 17 | 5 | 5 | 10 |
| GA avg | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Binh Dinh | Bình Phước | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 87% | 80% | 86% | 57% |
| 1.5 | 47% | 27% | 57% | 14% |
| 2.5 | 33% | 7% | 29% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 20% | 0% | 21% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 7% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Binh Dinh | Bình Phước | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Penalties
| Metric | Binh Dinh | Bình Phước |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 4 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 4 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Binh Dinh | Bình Phước |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 3 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 0 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-1 | 1-4 | 5-1 | 2-4 |
| Biggest losses | — | 3-1 | — | — |
| Goals For | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Binh Dinh | Bình Phước |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 54% | 46% |
| Att | 52% | 48% |
| Def | 40% | 60% |
| Poisson Distribution | 50% | 50% |
| H2h | 67% | 33% |
| Goals | 71% | 29% |
| Total | 55.7% | 44.3% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Binh Dinh
vs
Bình Phước
Expected goals
1.27
Binh Dinh xG
League Avg: 1.38
Total
2.67
1.40
Bình Phước xG
League Avg: 0.91
1x2 probabilities
Home
33.8%
Draw
25.9%
Away
39.7%
Best score tips
Tip
1 - 1
12.3%
Tip
0 - 1
9.7%
Tip
1 - 0
8.8%
More chances
1.5+
81%
Chance
2.5+
57%
Chance
3.5+
40%
Chance
BTTS
73%
Chance
🟨 Cards
—
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Binh Dinh = 1.27 (league 1.38), Bình Phước = 1.40 (league 0.91)
| Bình Phước | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Binh Dinh | 0 | 6.9% | 9.7% | 6.8% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 8.8% | 12.3% | 8.6% | 4.0% | 1.4% | 0.4% | |
| 2 | 5.6% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 2.4% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 33.8% · Draw 25.9% · Away win 39.7%
vtt 1 , vtd1