Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 11:00 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
2.69 (league 2.14)
0.87 (league 1.80)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 70.3% | 14.5% | 9.5% |
best score tips
2 - 0
10.3%
3 - 0
9.3%
2 - 1
8.9%
Score & goals probability table
| Osnabrück U19 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| MSV Duisburg U19 | 0 | 2.8% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 7.7% | 6.6% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 10.3% | 8.9% | 3.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 9.3% | 8.0% | 3.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 6.2% | 5.4% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 3.4% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
MSV Duisburg U19 carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 111 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: MSV Duisburg U19 +28.0, Osnabrück U19 +29.0.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
MSV Duisburg U19
vs
Osnabrück U19
Elo gapMSV Duisburg U19 +111
Home / draw / away53% / 18% / 29%
Expected home share65%
Combined Elo2910.6
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2910.6
Elo home share
65%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | MSV Duisburg U19 | Osnabrück U19 |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1493.4 | 1417.2 |
| Form Elo | 1507.1 | 1424.1 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1502.2 | 1472.9 |
| Attack Elo | 1448.6 | 1482.8 |
| Defense Elo | 1489.8 | 1340.6 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +28.0 | +29.0 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. MSV Duisburg U19 last-5 Elo change: +28.0; Osnabrück U19 last-5 Elo change: +29.0.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | MSV Duisburg U19 | Osnabrück U19 |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 73% | 53% |
| Attack | 50% | 50% |
| Defense | 83% | 61% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 9 | 1.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 7 | 1.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.10
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.20
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.40
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
73%
FT probability
3.5+
52%
FT probability
BTTS
79%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
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Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | MSV Duisburg U19 | Osnabrück U19 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 10 | 10 | 20 | 11 | 10 | 21 |
| Wins | 50% | 20% | 35% | 9% | 20% | 14% |
| Draws | 20% | 40% | 30% | 27% | 0% | 14% |
| Loses | 30% | 40% | 35% | 64% | 80% | 71% |
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Osnabrück U19LDLLLLLLWLLLLLLLWDLWD
League goals
| Metric | MSV Duisburg U19 | Osnabrück U19 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 18 | 12 | 30 | 15 | 13 | 28 |
| GF avg | 1.8 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| GA total | 12 | 15 | 27 | 26 | 32 | 58 |
| GA avg | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.8 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | MSV Duisburg U19 | Osnabrück U19 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 80% | 85% | 67% | 90% |
| 1.5 | 40% | 35% | 33% | 81% |
| 2.5 | 15% | 10% | 14% | 57% |
| 3.5 | 10% | 5% | 10% | 24% |
| 4.5 | 5% | 0% | 5% | 19% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | MSV Duisburg U19 | Osnabrück U19 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
Penalties
| Metric | MSV Duisburg U19 | Osnabrück U19 |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | MSV Duisburg U19 | Osnabrück U19 |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 1 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 3 | 7 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-1 | 4-5 | 2-1 | 2-6 |
| Biggest losses | 1-3 | 2-0 | 0-3 | 6-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 5 | 4 | 6 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
Model comparison
| Metric | MSV Duisburg U19 | Osnabrück U19 |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 58% | 42% |
| Att | 50% | 50% |
| Def | 70% | 30% |
| Poisson Distribution | 76% | 24% |
| H2h | 71% | 29% |
| Goals | 55% | 45% |
| Total | 63.3% | 36.7% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
MSV Duisburg U19
vs
Osnabrück U19
Expected goals
2.69
MSV Duisburg U19 xG
League Avg: 2.14
Total
3.56
0.87
Osnabrück U19 xG
League Avg: 1.80
1x2 probabilities
Home
70.3%
Draw
14.5%
Away
9.5%
Best score tips
Tip
2 - 0
10.3%
Tip
3 - 0
9.3%
Tip
2 - 1
8.9%
More chances
1.5+
95%
Chance
2.5+
73%
Chance
3.5+
52%
Chance
BTTS
79%
Chance
🟨 Cards
—
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): MSV Duisburg U19 = 2.69 (league 2.14), Osnabrück U19 = 0.87 (league 1.80)
| Osnabrück U19 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| MSV Duisburg U19 | 0 | 2.8% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 7.7% | 6.6% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 10.3% | 8.9% | 3.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 9.3% | 8.0% | 3.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 6.2% | 5.4% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 3.4% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 70.3% · Draw 14.5% · Away win 9.5%
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