Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 18:00 •
Estadio Bellavista
Expected Goals
1.07 (league 1.31)
0.36 (league 0.99)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 53.3% | 34.1% | 12.5% |
best score tips
1 - 0
25.6%
0 - 0
23.9%
2 - 0
13.6%
Score & goals probability table
| Libertad | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Macara | 0 | 23.9% | 8.7% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 25.6% | 9.3% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 13.6% | 4.9% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 4.9% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Macara carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 114 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Macara -10.3, Libertad -27.3.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Macara
vs
Libertad
Elo gapMacara +114
Home / draw / away54% / 18% / 28%
Expected home share66%
Combined Elo3082.4
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3082.4
Elo home share
66%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Macara | Libertad |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1580.9 | 1501.5 |
| Form Elo | 1580.6 | 1493.5 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1497.4 | 1471.3 |
| Attack Elo | 1500.8 | 1484.2 |
| Defense Elo | 1636.6 | 1523.5 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -10.3 | -27.3 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Macara last-5 Elo change: -10.3; Libertad last-5 Elo change: -27.3.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Macara | Libertad |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 20% |
| Attack | 67% | 33% |
| Defense | 44% | 33% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 3 | 0.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.90
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.60
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.80
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
52%
FT probability
2.5+
37%
FT probability
3.5+
26%
FT probability
BTTS
59%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Macara | Libertad | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 5 | 4 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 9 |
| Wins | 40% | 25% | 33% | 50% | 0% | 22% |
| Draws | 40% | 50% | 44% | 50% | 40% | 44% |
| Loses | 20% | 25% | 22% | 0% | 60% | 33% |
MacaraDWDDWDLLW
LibertadWDWLDDDLL
League goals
| Metric | Macara | Libertad | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 5 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
| GF avg | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.9 |
| GA total | 3 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 10 |
| GA avg | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.1 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Macara | Libertad | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 67% | 56% | 67% | 67% |
| 1.5 | 22% | 11% | 22% | 44% |
| 2.5 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Macara | Libertad | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
Penalties
| Metric | Macara | Libertad |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Macara | Libertad |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 1 |
| Draws | 2 | 3 |
| Losses | 2 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-1 | 0-2 | 2-1 | — |
| Biggest losses | 0-1 | 2-1 | — | 2-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Goals Against | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Macara | Libertad |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 70% | 30% |
| Att | 67% | 33% |
| Def | 55% | 45% |
| Poisson Distribution | 76% | 24% |
| H2h | 91% | 9% |
| Goals | 86% | 14% |
| Total | 74.2% | 25.8% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Macara
vs
Libertad
Expected goals
1.07
Macara xG
League Avg: 1.31
Total
1.43
0.36
Libertad xG
League Avg: 0.99
1x2 probabilities
Home
53.3%
Draw
34.1%
Away
12.5%
Best score tips
Tip
1 - 0
25.6%
Tip
0 - 0
23.9%
Tip
2 - 0
13.6%
More chances
1.5+
52%
Chance
2.5+
37%
Chance
3.5+
26%
Chance
BTTS
59%
Chance
🟨 Cards
2 - 4
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Macara = 1.07 (league 1.31), Libertad = 0.36 (league 0.99)
| Libertad | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Macara | 0 | 23.9% | 8.7% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 25.6% | 9.3% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 13.6% | 4.9% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 4.9% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 53.3% · Draw 34.1% · Away win 12.5%
vtt 1 , vtd1