Esiliiga A
— Estonia
Thu, Apr 23 2026 • 15:00 •
Sportland Arena
Expected Goals
1.45 (league 2.07)
2.28 (league 1.72)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 23.6% | 19.9% | 53.3% |
best score tips
1 - 2
9.0%
1 - 1
7.9%
1 - 3
6.9%
Score & goals probability table
| Elva | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Flora II | 0 | 2.4% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 1.2% |
| 1 | 3.5% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 3.9% | 1.8% | |
| 2 | 2.5% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 1.3% | |
| 3 | 1.2% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.6% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Balanced Elo outlook
Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Flora II +34.4, Elva +13.6.
Thin confidence
Upset risk: High
Elo standalone
Flora II
vs
Elva
Elo gapFlora II +16
Home / draw / away37% / 28% / 35%
Expected home share52%
Combined Elo3041.4
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Balanced Elo outlook
Confidence band
Thin confidence
Upset risk
High
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3041.4
Elo home share
52%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Flora II | Elva |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1511.1 | 1530.3 |
| Form Elo | 1540.7 | 1533.2 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1519.7 | 1528.5 |
| Attack Elo | 1587.6 | 1545.4 |
| Defense Elo | 1474.7 | 1499.8 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +34.4 | +13.6 |
The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Flora II last-5 Elo change: +34.4; Elva last-5 Elo change: +13.6.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Flora II | Elva |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 80% | 60% |
| Attack | 64% | 36% |
| Defense | 64% | 72% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 16 | 3.2 | 9 | 1.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 7 | 1.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.50
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.70
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.10
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.30
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
78%
FT probability
3.5+
56%
FT probability
BTTS
84%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Flora II | Elva | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 3 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| Wins | 67% | 67% | 67% | 67% | 33% | 50% |
| Draws | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 33% | 17% |
| Loses | 33% | 33% | 33% | 33% | 33% | 33% |
Flora IILLWWWW
ElvaDWWWLL
League goals
| Metric | Flora II | Elva | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 9 | 8 | 17 | 5 | 5 | 10 |
| GF avg | 3.0 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| GA total | 7 | 4 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
| GA avg | 2.3 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 1.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Flora II | Elva | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 100% | 83% | 100% | 67% |
| 1.5 | 67% | 33% | 33% | 50% |
| 2.5 | 67% | 17% | 33% | 17% |
| 3.5 | 33% | 17% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 17% | 17% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Flora II | Elva | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Penalties
| Metric | Flora II | Elva |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Flora II | Elva |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 0 | 3 |
| Draws | 0 | 1 |
| Losses | 2 | 0 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-0 | 1-4 | 3-2 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 1-6 | 2-1 | 1-3 | 2-1 |
| Goals For | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 6 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Flora II | Elva |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 57% | 43% |
| Att | 64% | 36% |
| Def | 44% | 56% |
| Poisson Distribution | 38% | 62% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 55% | 45% |
| Total | 51.3% | 48.7% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.93 @ 1xBet
Draw4.00 @ Bet365
Away3.10 @ Dafabet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.40 @ Bet365
Under 2.53.20 @ Betfair
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.33 @ Marathonbet
No3.10 @ Betfair
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Flora II
vs
Elva
Expected goals
1.45
Flora II xG
League Avg: 2.07
Total
3.73
2.28
Elva xG
League Avg: 1.72
1x2 probabilities
Home
23.6%
Draw
19.9%
Away
53.3%
Best score tips
Tip
1 - 2
9.0%
Tip
1 - 1
7.9%
Tip
1 - 3
6.9%
More chances
1.5+
95%
Chance
2.5+
78%
Chance
3.5+
56%
Chance
BTTS
84%
Chance
🟨 Cards
—
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Flora II = 1.45 (league 2.07), Elva = 2.28 (league 1.72)
| Elva | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Flora II | 0 | 2.4% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 1.2% |
| 1 | 3.5% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 3.9% | 1.8% | |
| 2 | 2.5% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 1.3% | |
| 3 | 1.2% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.6% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 23.6% · Draw 19.9% · Away win 53.3%
vtt 1 , vtd1