Fri, Apr 24 2026 • 16:00 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
4.06 (league 2.10)
1.49 (league 1.75)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 59.0% | 9.8% | 8.4% |
best score tips
4 - 1
6.6%
3 - 1
6.5%
5 - 1
5.3%
Score & goals probability table
| Nõmme Kalju II | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Nõmme United II | 0 | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 1.6% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 3.2% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 4.3% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 4.4% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | |
| 5 | 3.6% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Nõmme United II carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 239 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Nõmme United II +9.6, Nõmme Kalju II -32.1.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Nõmme United II
vs
Nõmme Kalju II
Elo gapNõmme United II +239
Home / draw / away66% / 18% / 16%
Expected home share80%
Combined Elo3089.9
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3089.9
Elo home share
80%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Nõmme United II | Nõmme Kalju II |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1647 | 1442.9 |
| Form Elo | 1664 | 1402.6 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1543.5 | 1470.2 |
| Attack Elo | 1816.9 | 1509.5 |
| Defense Elo | 1533.4 | 1276.9 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +9.6 | -32.1 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Nõmme United II last-5 Elo change: +9.6; Nõmme Kalju II last-5 Elo change: -32.1.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Nõmme United II | Nõmme Kalju II |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 67% | 27% |
| Attack | 40% | 32% |
| Defense | 72% | 36% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 10 | 2 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 16 | 3.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.60
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.60
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.30
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
5.70
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
85%
FT probability
3.5+
61%
FT probability
BTTS
87%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Nõmme United II | Nõmme Kalju II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 3 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| Wins | 33% | 100% | 67% | 33% | 0% | 17% |
| Draws | 33% | 0% | 17% | 33% | 0% | 17% |
| Loses | 33% | 0% | 17% | 33% | 100% | 67% |
Nõmme United IIWWDLWW
Nõmme Kalju IILDLLLW
League goals
| Metric | Nõmme United II | Nõmme Kalju II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 7 | 7 | 14 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
| GF avg | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| GA total | 6 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 18 |
| GA avg | 2.0 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 3.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Nõmme United II | Nõmme Kalju II | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 100% | 83% | 67% | 83% |
| 1.5 | 67% | 33% | 33% | 83% |
| 2.5 | 50% | 17% | 33% | 50% |
| 3.5 | 17% | 0% | 0% | 33% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 33% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Nõmme United II | Nõmme Kalju II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Penalties
| Metric | Nõmme United II | Nõmme Kalju II |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Nõmme United II | Nõmme Kalju II |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 0 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-1 | 1-3 | 3-2 | — |
| Biggest losses | 1-3 | — | 1-5 | 6-3 |
| Goals For | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 1 | 5 | 6 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Nõmme United II | Nõmme Kalju II |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 71% | 29% |
| Att | 56% | 44% |
| Def | 70% | 30% |
| Poisson Distribution | 71% | 29% |
| H2h | 0% | 0% |
| Goals | 0% | 0% |
| Total | 67.0% | 33.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Nõmme United II
vs
Nõmme Kalju II
Expected goals
4.06
Nõmme United II xG
League Avg: 2.10
Total
5.55
1.49
Nõmme Kalju II xG
League Avg: 1.75
1x2 probabilities
Home
59.0%
Draw
9.8%
Away
8.4%
Best score tips
Tip
4 - 1
6.6%
Tip
3 - 1
6.5%
Tip
5 - 1
5.3%
More chances
1.5+
95%
Chance
2.5+
85%
Chance
3.5+
61%
Chance
BTTS
87%
Chance
🟨 Cards
—
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Nõmme United II = 4.06 (league 2.10), Nõmme Kalju II = 1.49 (league 1.75)
| Nõmme Kalju II | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Nõmme United II | 0 | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 1.6% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 3.2% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 4.3% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 4.4% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | |
| 5 | 3.6% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 59.0% · Draw 9.8% · Away win 8.4%
vtt 1 , vtd1