K3 League
— South-Korea
Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 05:00 •
Gyeongju Civic Stadium
Expected Goals
2.08 (league 1.25)
1.10 (league 1.19)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 58.1% | 20.7% | 19.2% |
best score tips
2 - 1
9.9%
1 - 1
9.5%
2 - 0
9.0%
Score & goals probability table
| Ulsan Citizen | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Gyeongju HNP | 0 | 4.2% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 8.7% | 9.5% | 5.2% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 9.0% | 9.9% | 5.4% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 6.3% | 6.9% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 3.3% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 1.4% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Gyeongju HNP carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 135 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Gyeongju HNP -10.8, Ulsan Citizen +4.9.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Gyeongju HNP
vs
Ulsan Citizen
Elo gapGyeongju HNP +135
Home / draw / away57% / 18% / 25%
Expected home share69%
Combined Elo2919.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2919.3
Elo home share
69%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Gyeongju HNP | Ulsan Citizen |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1509.8 | 1409.5 |
| Form Elo | 1495 | 1404.7 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1507 | 1475.7 |
| Attack Elo | 1523.8 | 1379.4 |
| Defense Elo | 1527.1 | 1492.8 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -10.8 | +4.9 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Gyeongju HNP last-5 Elo change: -10.8; Ulsan Citizen last-5 Elo change: +4.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Gyeongju HNP | Ulsan Citizen |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 27% | 47% |
| Attack | 53% | 29% |
| Defense | 53% | 65% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.30
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
79%
FT probability
2.5+
56%
FT probability
3.5+
40%
FT probability
BTTS
73%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
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Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Gyeongju HNP | Ulsan Citizen | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 4 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| Wins | 50% | 0% | 29% | 33% | 50% | 43% |
| Draws | 25% | 0% | 14% | 33% | 0% | 14% |
| Loses | 25% | 100% | 57% | 33% | 50% | 43% |
Gyeongju HNPWLLDLWL
Ulsan CitizenWLWLWDL
League goals
| Metric | Gyeongju HNP | Ulsan Citizen | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 8 | 4 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 8 |
| GF avg | 2.0 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| GA total | 4 | 7 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 8 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Gyeongju HNP | Ulsan Citizen | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 100% | 71% | 71% | 71% |
| 1.5 | 43% | 57% | 43% | 43% |
| 2.5 | 14% | 29% | 0% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 14% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Gyeongju HNP | Ulsan Citizen | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Penalties
| Metric | Gyeongju HNP | Ulsan Citizen |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Gyeongju HNP | Ulsan Citizen |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 1 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 2 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | — | 2-1 | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | 2-3 | 3-2 | 1-2 | 2-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Gyeongju HNP | Ulsan Citizen |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 36% | 64% |
| Att | 64% | 36% |
| Def | 43% | 57% |
| Poisson Distribution | 64% | 36% |
| H2h | 62% | 38% |
| Goals | 58% | 42% |
| Total | 54.5% | 45.5% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Gyeongju HNP
vs
Ulsan Citizen
Expected goals
2.08
Gyeongju HNP xG
League Avg: 1.25
Total
3.18
1.10
Ulsan Citizen xG
League Avg: 1.19
1x2 probabilities
Home
58.1%
Draw
20.7%
Away
19.2%
Best score tips
Tip
2 - 1
9.9%
Tip
1 - 1
9.5%
Tip
2 - 0
9.0%
More chances
1.5+
79%
Chance
2.5+
56%
Chance
3.5+
40%
Chance
BTTS
73%
Chance
🟨 Cards
—
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Gyeongju HNP = 2.08 (league 1.25), Ulsan Citizen = 1.10 (league 1.19)
| Ulsan Citizen | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Gyeongju HNP | 0 | 4.2% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 8.7% | 9.5% | 5.2% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 9.0% | 9.9% | 5.4% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 6.3% | 6.9% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 3.3% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 1.4% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 58.1% · Draw 20.7% · Away win 19.2%
vtt 1 , vtd1