Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 11:30 •
Sree Kanteerava Stadium
Expected Goals
0.44 (league 1.46)
0.86 (league 1.16)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 17.7% | 38.5% | 43.8% |
best score tips
0 - 0
27.2%
0 - 1
23.5%
1 - 0
11.9%
Score & goals probability table
| Mumbai City | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Bengaluru | 0 | 27.2% | 23.5% | 10.2% | 2.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 11.9% | 10.3% | 4.5% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 2.6% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Bengaluru carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 25 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Bengaluru +15.9, Mumbai City +33.7.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Bengaluru
vs
Mumbai City
Elo gapBengaluru +25
Home / draw / away39% / 27% / 34%
Expected home share54%
Combined Elo3105.7
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3105.7
Elo home share
54%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Bengaluru | Mumbai City |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1547.9 | 1557.8 |
| Form Elo | 1559 | 1584.2 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1517.2 | 1523.5 |
| Attack Elo | 1576.6 | 1507.5 |
| Defense Elo | 1578.2 | 1568.1 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +15.9 | +33.7 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Bengaluru last-5 Elo change: +15.9; Mumbai City last-5 Elo change: +33.7.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Bengaluru | Mumbai City |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 53% | 67% |
| Attack | 90% | 50% |
| Defense | 40% | 60% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 4 | 0.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.80
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.90
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.80
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
59%
FT probability
2.5+
41%
FT probability
3.5+
29%
FT probability
BTTS
63%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Bengaluru | Mumbai City | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 5 | 4 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 9 |
| Wins | 20% | 75% | 44% | 50% | 60% | 56% |
| Draws | 40% | 25% | 33% | 50% | 20% | 33% |
| Loses | 40% | 0% | 22% | 0% | 20% | 11% |
BengaluruWDLWDWWLD
Mumbai CityWWDDWWWDL
League goals
| Metric | Bengaluru | Mumbai City | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 4 | 10 | 14 | 5 | 5 | 10 |
| GF avg | 0.8 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| GA total | 5 | 5 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Bengaluru | Mumbai City | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 78% | 67% | 89% | 56% |
| 1.5 | 56% | 33% | 22% | 22% |
| 2.5 | 22% | 11% | 0% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Bengaluru | Mumbai City | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Penalties
| Metric | Bengaluru | Mumbai City |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Bengaluru | Mumbai City |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 3 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 1 | 0 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-0 | 1-3 | 1-0 | 1-2 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | — | — | 2-0 |
| Goals For | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Bengaluru | Mumbai City |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 44% | 56% |
| Att | 64% | 36% |
| Def | 40% | 60% |
| Poisson Distribution | 33% | 67% |
| H2h | 29% | 71% |
| Goals | 38% | 62% |
| Total | 41.3% | 58.7% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Bengaluru
vs
Mumbai City
Expected goals
0.44
Bengaluru xG
League Avg: 1.46
Total
1.30
0.86
Mumbai City xG
League Avg: 1.16
1x2 probabilities
Home
17.7%
Draw
38.5%
Away
43.8%
Best score tips
Tip
0 - 0
27.2%
Tip
0 - 1
23.5%
Tip
1 - 0
11.9%
More chances
1.5+
59%
Chance
2.5+
41%
Chance
3.5+
29%
Chance
BTTS
63%
Chance
🟨 Cards
2 - 4
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Bengaluru = 0.44 (league 1.46), Mumbai City = 0.86 (league 1.16)
| Mumbai City | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Bengaluru | 0 | 27.2% | 23.5% | 10.2% | 2.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 11.9% | 10.3% | 4.5% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 2.6% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 17.7% · Draw 38.5% · Away win 43.8%
vtt 1 , vtd1