Fri, Apr 24 2026 • 10:30 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
1.53 (league 2.10)
1.94 (league 1.47)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 30.2% | 21.9% | 46.0% |
best score tips
1 - 1
9.2%
1 - 2
9.0%
2 - 1
7.1%
Score & goals probability table
| Northcote City | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Eltham Redbacks FC | 0 | 3.1% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 4.8% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 5.8% | 2.8% | 1.1% | |
| 2 | 3.6% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 0.8% | |
| 3 | 1.9% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% | |
| 4 | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Eltham Redbacks FC carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 66 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Eltham Redbacks FC +22.2, Northcote City +15.2.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Eltham Redbacks FC
vs
Northcote City
Elo gapEltham Redbacks FC +66
Home / draw / away46% / 22% / 32%
Expected home share59%
Combined Elo3014.9
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3014.9
Elo home share
59%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Eltham Redbacks FC | Northcote City |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1523 | 1491.9 |
| Form Elo | 1539.6 | 1508.1 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1510.6 | 1492.3 |
| Attack Elo | 1537 | 1540.2 |
| Defense Elo | 1496.2 | 1475.5 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +22.2 | +15.2 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Eltham Redbacks FC last-5 Elo change: +22.2; Northcote City last-5 Elo change: +15.2.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Eltham Redbacks FC | Northcote City |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 80% | 67% |
| Attack | 52% | 29% |
| Defense | 67% | 76% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 11 | 2.2 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.50
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.30
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.70
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
69%
FT probability
3.5+
49%
FT probability
BTTS
80%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Eltham Redbacks FC | Northcote City | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 4 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 9 |
| Wins | 75% | 60% | 67% | 75% | 80% | 78% |
| Draws | 25% | 0% | 11% | 25% | 0% | 11% |
| Loses | 0% | 40% | 22% | 0% | 20% | 11% |
Eltham Redbacks FCLWWDWWLWW
Northcote CityWWWWWWLWD
League goals
| Metric | Eltham Redbacks FC | Northcote City | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 9 | 10 | 19 | 9 | 11 | 20 |
| GF avg | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| GA total | 5 | 7 | 12 | 2 | 7 | 9 |
| GA avg | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 1.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Eltham Redbacks FC | Northcote City | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 100% | 78% | 78% | 67% |
| 1.5 | 89% | 44% | 78% | 22% |
| 2.5 | 22% | 11% | 44% | 11% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 22% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Eltham Redbacks FC | Northcote City | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Penalties
| Metric | Eltham Redbacks FC | Northcote City |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Eltham Redbacks FC | Northcote City |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 6 |
| Draws | 1 | 0 |
| Losses | 1 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-0 | 1-3 | 4-1 | 2-4 |
| Biggest losses | — | 3-2 | — | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Eltham Redbacks FC | Northcote City |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 55% | 45% |
| Att | 65% | 35% |
| Def | 42% | 58% |
| Poisson Distribution | 48% | 52% |
| H2h | 0% | 0% |
| Goals | 0% | 0% |
| Total | 52.5% | 47.5% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Eltham Redbacks FC
vs
Northcote City
Expected goals
1.53
Eltham Redbacks FC xG
League Avg: 2.10
Total
3.47
1.94
Northcote City xG
League Avg: 1.47
1x2 probabilities
Home
30.2%
Draw
21.9%
Away
46.0%
Best score tips
Tip
1 - 1
9.2%
Tip
1 - 2
9.0%
Tip
2 - 1
7.1%
More chances
1.5+
95%
Chance
2.5+
69%
Chance
3.5+
49%
Chance
BTTS
80%
Chance
🟨 Cards
—
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Eltham Redbacks FC = 1.53 (league 2.10), Northcote City = 1.94 (league 1.47)
| Northcote City | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Eltham Redbacks FC | 0 | 3.1% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 4.8% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 5.8% | 2.8% | 1.1% | |
| 2 | 3.6% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 0.8% | |
| 3 | 1.9% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% | |
| 4 | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 30.2% · Draw 21.9% · Away win 46.0%
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