Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 08:00 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
3.53 (league 1.70)
0.48 (league 1.67)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 76.7% | 6.5% | 2.3% |
best score tips
3 - 0
13.3%
4 - 0
11.7%
2 - 0
11.3%
Score & goals probability table
| Brisbane Roar II | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Moreton City Excelsior | 0 | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 6.4% | 3.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 11.3% | 5.4% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 13.3% | 6.4% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 11.7% | 5.6% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 8.3% | 4.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Moreton City Excelsior carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 212 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Moreton City Excelsior +32.2, Brisbane Roar II -2.4.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Moreton City Excelsior
vs
Brisbane Roar II
Elo gapMoreton City Excelsior +212
Home / draw / away63% / 18% / 19%
Expected home share77%
Combined Elo3013.9
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3013.9
Elo home share
77%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Moreton City Excelsior | Brisbane Roar II |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1595.3 | 1418.6 |
| Form Elo | 1619.6 | 1407 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1547.9 | 1483.6 |
| Attack Elo | 1690.7 | 1455.2 |
| Defense Elo | 1544.5 | 1429.2 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +32.2 | -2.4 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Moreton City Excelsior last-5 Elo change: +32.2; Brisbane Roar II last-5 Elo change: -2.4.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Moreton City Excelsior | Brisbane Roar II |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 100% | 40% |
| Attack | 94% | 33% |
| Defense | 83% | 44% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 17 | 3.4 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 10 | 2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.10
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.40
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.80
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
72%
FT probability
3.5+
51%
FT probability
BTTS
81%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Moreton City Excelsior | Brisbane Roar II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 4 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 8 |
| Wins | 100% | 50% | 75% | 33% | 0% | 25% |
| Draws | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Loses | 0% | 50% | 25% | 67% | 100% | 75% |
Moreton City ExcelsiorWLLWWWWW
Brisbane Roar IILLLLWLWL
League goals
| Metric | Moreton City Excelsior | Brisbane Roar II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 12 | 10 | 22 | 8 | 2 | 10 |
| GF avg | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| GA total | 3 | 6 | 9 | 14 | 4 | 18 |
| GA avg | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Moreton City Excelsior | Brisbane Roar II | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 88% | 75% | 75% | 100% |
| 1.5 | 75% | 25% | 38% | 63% |
| 2.5 | 63% | 13% | 13% | 38% |
| 3.5 | 38% | 0% | 0% | 13% |
| 4.5 | 13% | 0% | 0% | 13% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Moreton City Excelsior | Brisbane Roar II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Penalties
| Metric | Moreton City Excelsior | Brisbane Roar II |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Moreton City Excelsior | Brisbane Roar II |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 1 |
| Draws | 0 | 0 |
| Losses | 2 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-1 | 0-5 | 3-2 | — |
| Biggest losses | — | 3-0 | 1-5 | 3-2 |
| Goals For | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 1 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Moreton City Excelsior | Brisbane Roar II |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 71% | 29% |
| Att | 74% | 26% |
| Def | 77% | 23% |
| Poisson Distribution | 91% | 9% |
| H2h | 91% | 9% |
| Goals | 64% | 36% |
| Total | 78.0% | 22.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Moreton City Excelsior
vs
Brisbane Roar II
Expected goals
3.53
Moreton City Excelsior xG
League Avg: 1.70
Total
4.01
0.48
Brisbane Roar II xG
League Avg: 1.67
1x2 probabilities
Home
76.7%
Draw
6.5%
Away
2.3%
Best score tips
Tip
3 - 0
13.3%
Tip
4 - 0
11.7%
Tip
2 - 0
11.3%
More chances
1.5+
95%
Chance
2.5+
72%
Chance
3.5+
51%
Chance
BTTS
81%
Chance
🟨 Cards
—
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Moreton City Excelsior = 3.53 (league 1.70), Brisbane Roar II = 0.48 (league 1.67)
| Brisbane Roar II | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Moreton City Excelsior | 0 | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 6.4% | 3.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 11.3% | 5.4% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 13.3% | 6.4% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 11.7% | 5.6% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 8.3% | 4.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 76.7% · Draw 6.5% · Away win 2.3%
vtt 1 , vtd1