Wed, Apr 22 2026 • 18:00 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
2.12 (league 1.65)
2.93 (league 1.16)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 25.6% | 17.1% | 47.5% |
best score tips
2 - 2
6.2%
2 - 3
6.0%
1 - 2
5.8%
Score & goals probability table
| Grêmio U20 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Juventude U20 | 0 | 0.6% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 1.2% |
| 1 | 1.4% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 2.4% | |
| 2 | 1.4% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 2.6% | |
| 3 | 1.0% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 1.8% | |
| 4 | 0.5% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 1.0% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.4% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away lean
Grêmio U20 carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 24 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Juventude U20 -1.7, Grêmio U20 -25.3.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Juventude U20
vs
Grêmio U20
Elo gapGrêmio U20 +24
Home / draw / away34% / 27% / 39%
Expected home share47%
Combined Elo3082.7
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3082.7
Elo home share
47%
Match tone
Strong Watch
| Metric | Juventude U20 | Grêmio U20 |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1511.8 | 1570.9 |
| Form Elo | 1504.2 | 1548.2 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1526.2 | 1515.9 |
| Attack Elo | 1503 | 1667.6 |
| Defense Elo | 1505.8 | 1521.6 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -1.7 | -25.3 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Juventude U20 last-5 Elo change: -1.7; Grêmio U20 last-5 Elo change: -25.3.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Juventude U20 | Grêmio U20 |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 27% | 20% |
| Attack | 42% | 58% |
| Defense | 33% | 0% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 12 | 2.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.30
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.50
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.40
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
73%
FT probability
3.5+
52%
FT probability
BTTS
85%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
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Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Juventude U20 | Grêmio U20 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 3 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| Wins | 33% | 0% | 17% | 0% | 33% | 17% |
| Draws | 33% | 0% | 17% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Loses | 33% | 100% | 67% | 100% | 67% | 83% |
Juventude U20LDWLLL
Grêmio U20LLLWLL
League goals
| Metric | Juventude U20 | Grêmio U20 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 4 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 9 |
| GF avg | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.5 |
| GA total | 5 | 5 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 17 |
| GA avg | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 2.8 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Juventude U20 | Grêmio U20 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 67% | 100% | 83% | 83% |
| 1.5 | 17% | 50% | 50% | 67% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 17% | 17% | 67% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 50% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 17% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Juventude U20 | Grêmio U20 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Penalties
| Metric | Juventude U20 | Grêmio U20 |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Juventude U20 | Grêmio U20 |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 1 |
| Draws | 1 | 0 |
| Losses | 1 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-1 | — | — | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | 1-3 | 2-0 | 2-5 | 4-1 |
| Goals For | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 2 | 5 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Juventude U20 | Grêmio U20 |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 57% | 43% |
| Att | 42% | 58% |
| Def | 60% | 40% |
| Poisson Distribution | 45% | 55% |
| H2h | 25% | 75% |
| Goals | 40% | 60% |
| Total | 44.8% | 55.2% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Juventude U20
vs
Grêmio U20
Expected goals
2.12
Juventude U20 xG
League Avg: 1.65
Total
5.06
2.93
Grêmio U20 xG
League Avg: 1.16
1x2 probabilities
Home
25.6%
Draw
17.1%
Away
47.5%
Best score tips
Tip
2 - 2
6.2%
Tip
2 - 3
6.0%
Tip
1 - 2
5.8%
More chances
1.5+
95%
Chance
2.5+
73%
Chance
3.5+
52%
Chance
BTTS
85%
Chance
🟨 Cards
—
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Juventude U20 = 2.12 (league 1.65), Grêmio U20 = 2.93 (league 1.16)
| Grêmio U20 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Juventude U20 | 0 | 0.6% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 1.2% |
| 1 | 1.4% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 2.4% | |
| 2 | 1.4% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 2.6% | |
| 3 | 1.0% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 1.8% | |
| 4 | 0.5% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 1.0% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.4% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 25.6% · Draw 17.1% · Away win 47.5%
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