Fri, Apr 24 2026 • 15:00 •
Raudondvario stadionas
Expected Goals
1.33 (league 1.50)
1.94 (league 1.54)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 25.9% | 22.0% | 50.3% |
best score tips
1 - 1
9.8%
1 - 2
9.5%
0 - 1
7.4%
Score & goals probability table
| Kauno Žalgiris II | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Hegelmann II | 0 | 3.8% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 4.6% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| 1 | 5.0% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 6.2% | 3.0% | 1.2% | |
| 2 | 3.3% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 0.8% | |
| 3 | 1.5% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Hegelmann II carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 96 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Hegelmann II -19.0, Kauno Žalgiris II -38.9.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Hegelmann II
vs
Kauno Žalgiris II
Elo gapHegelmann II +96
Home / draw / away51% / 19% / 30%
Expected home share63%
Combined Elo2801.2
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2801.2
Elo home share
63%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Hegelmann II | Kauno Žalgiris II |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1431 | 1370.2 |
| Form Elo | 1419.8 | 1332.9 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1456.5 | 1454.9 |
| Attack Elo | 1436.2 | 1494.8 |
| Defense Elo | 1404.3 | 1360.4 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -19.0 | -38.9 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Hegelmann II last-5 Elo change: -19.0; Kauno Žalgiris II last-5 Elo change: -38.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Hegelmann II | Kauno Žalgiris II |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 27% | 0% |
| Attack | 22% | 17% |
| Defense | 39% | 33% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 3 | 0.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 11 | 2.2 | 12 | 2.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.40
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.60
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
5.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
89%
FT probability
2.5+
63%
FT probability
3.5+
45%
FT probability
BTTS
73%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Hegelmann II | Kauno Žalgiris II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| Wins | 0% | 33% | 20% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Draws | 0% | 33% | 20% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Loses | 100% | 33% | 60% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Hegelmann IILLDLW
Kauno Žalgiris IILLLLL
League goals
| Metric | Hegelmann II | Kauno Žalgiris II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 0 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| GF avg | 0.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| GA total | 6 | 5 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 12 |
| GA avg | 3.0 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Hegelmann II | Kauno Žalgiris II | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 40% | 100% | 60% | 100% |
| 1.5 | 20% | 60% | 0% | 80% |
| 2.5 | 20% | 60% | 0% | 40% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 20% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Hegelmann II | Kauno Žalgiris II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
Penalties
| Metric | Hegelmann II | Kauno Žalgiris II |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Hegelmann II | Kauno Žalgiris II |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 0 | 0 |
| Draws | 1 | 0 |
| Losses | 2 | 5 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | — | 1-3 | — | — |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 3-0 | 0-4 | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Hegelmann II | Kauno Žalgiris II |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 100% | 0% |
| Att | 57% | 43% |
| Def | 52% | 48% |
| Poisson Distribution | 0% | 100% |
| H2h | 25% | 75% |
| Goals | 23% | 77% |
| Total | 39.3% | 60.8% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.48 @ Unibet
Draw3.50 @ 1xBet
Away2.49 @ 1xBet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.58 @ Unibet
Under 2.52.12 @ Unibet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.50 @ Unibet
No2.35 @ Unibet
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Hegelmann II
vs
Kauno Žalgiris II
Expected goals
1.33
Hegelmann II xG
League Avg: 1.50
Total
3.27
1.94
Kauno Žalgiris II xG
League Avg: 1.54
1x2 probabilities
Home
25.9%
Draw
22.0%
Away
50.3%
Best score tips
Tip
1 - 1
9.8%
Tip
1 - 2
9.5%
Tip
0 - 1
7.4%
More chances
1.5+
89%
Chance
2.5+
63%
Chance
3.5+
45%
Chance
BTTS
73%
Chance
🟨 Cards
0 - 0
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Hegelmann II = 1.33 (league 1.50), Kauno Žalgiris II = 1.94 (league 1.54)
| Kauno Žalgiris II | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Hegelmann II | 0 | 3.8% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 4.6% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| 1 | 5.0% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 6.2% | 3.0% | 1.2% | |
| 2 | 3.3% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 0.8% | |
| 3 | 1.5% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 25.9% · Draw 22.0% · Away win 50.3%
vtt 1 , vtd1