Premier League
— Egypt
Wed, Apr 22 2026 • 18:00 •
Alexandria Stadium
Expected Goals
0.70 (league 1.10)
0.66 (league 1.01)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 31.9% | 39.0% | 29.1% |
best score tips
0 - 0
25.7%
1 - 0
18.1%
0 - 1
16.9%
Score & goals probability table
| Ceramica Cleopatra | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Smouha SC | 0 | 25.7% | 16.9% | 5.5% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 18.1% | 11.8% | 3.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 6.3% | 4.2% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away edge
Ceramica Cleopatra carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 52 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Smouha SC -22.0, Ceramica Cleopatra -7.7.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Smouha SC
vs
Ceramica Cleopatra
Elo gapCeramica Cleopatra +52
Home / draw / away33% / 24% / 43%
Expected home share43%
Combined Elo3051.6
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3051.6
Elo home share
43%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Smouha SC | Ceramica Cleopatra |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1482.5 | 1569.1 |
| Form Elo | 1480.7 | 1580.3 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1479.3 | 1526.4 |
| Attack Elo | 1393.5 | 1543.4 |
| Defense Elo | 1572.7 | 1598.8 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -22.0 | -7.7 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Smouha SC last-5 Elo change: -22.0; Ceramica Cleopatra last-5 Elo change: -7.7.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Smouha SC | Ceramica Cleopatra |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 40% | 33% |
| Attack | 47% | 40% |
| Defense | 60% | 60% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.20
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.60
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.30
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
54%
FT probability
2.5+
38%
FT probability
3.5+
27%
FT probability
BTTS
59%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Smouha SC | Ceramica Cleopatra | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 11 | 11 | 22 | 11 | 11 | 22 |
| Wins | 45% | 27% | 36% | 64% | 36% | 50% |
| Draws | 27% | 36% | 32% | 27% | 36% | 32% |
| Loses | 27% | 36% | 32% | 9% | 27% | 18% |
Smouha SCDDDWDLWDWDLDWWWLLLWWLL
Ceramica CleopatraLDWWWLWDWWWWWWLWLDDDDD
League goals
| Metric | Smouha SC | Ceramica Cleopatra | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 12 | 10 | 22 | 19 | 12 | 31 |
| GF avg | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| GA total | 7 | 10 | 17 | 10 | 8 | 18 |
| GA avg | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.8 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Smouha SC | Ceramica Cleopatra | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 59% | 68% | 82% | 59% |
| 1.5 | 32% | 9% | 45% | 18% |
| 2.5 | 9% | 0% | 14% | 5% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Smouha SC | Ceramica Cleopatra | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 9 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
Penalties
| Metric | Smouha SC | Ceramica Cleopatra |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | Smouha SC | Ceramica Cleopatra |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 6 |
| Draws | 3 | 1 |
| Losses | 3 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 1-3 | 3-1 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 2-1 | 0-2 | 3-2 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Smouha SC | Ceramica Cleopatra |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 55% | 45% |
| Att | 54% | 46% |
| Def | 50% | 50% |
| Poisson Distribution | 51% | 49% |
| H2h | 60% | 40% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 53.3% | 46.7% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home3.21 @ Pinnacle
Draw2.90 @ Betfair
Away2.50 @ William Hill
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.80 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.47 @ Betfair
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes2.25 @ Bet365
No1.65 @ William Hill
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Smouha SC
vs
Ceramica Cleopatra
Expected goals
0.70
Smouha SC xG
League Avg: 1.10
Total
1.36
0.66
Ceramica Cleopatra xG
League Avg: 1.01
1x2 probabilities
Home
31.9%
Draw
39.0%
Away
29.1%
Best score tips
Tip
0 - 0
25.7%
Tip
1 - 0
18.1%
Tip
0 - 1
16.9%
More chances
1.5+
54%
Chance
2.5+
38%
Chance
3.5+
27%
Chance
BTTS
59%
Chance
🟨 Cards
2 - 4
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Smouha SC = 0.70 (league 1.10), Ceramica Cleopatra = 0.66 (league 1.01)
| Ceramica Cleopatra | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Smouha SC | 0 | 25.7% | 16.9% | 5.5% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 18.1% | 11.8% | 3.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 6.3% | 4.2% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 31.9% · Draw 39.0% · Away win 29.1%
vtt 1 , vtd1