Tue, Apr 21 2026 • 12:00 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
1.02 (league 0.88)
0.79 (league 0.97)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 40.0% | 32.4% | 27.5% |
best score tips
1 - 0
16.7%
0 - 0
16.3%
1 - 1
13.2%
Score & goals probability table
| Adama Kenema | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Kedus Giorgis | 0 | 16.3% | 12.9% | 5.1% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 16.7% | 13.2% | 5.2% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 8.5% | 6.8% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 2.9% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Kedus Giorgis carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 53 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Kedus Giorgis +3.0, Adama Kenema -56.4.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Kedus Giorgis
vs
Adama Kenema
Elo gapKedus Giorgis +53
Home / draw / away44% / 24% / 32%
Expected home share58%
Combined Elo2946.9
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2946.9
Elo home share
58%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Kedus Giorgis | Adama Kenema |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1482.5 | 1464.4 |
| Form Elo | 1475.4 | 1437.6 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1468.7 | 1514.5 |
| Attack Elo | 1394.7 | 1437.5 |
| Defense Elo | 1584.3 | 1506.1 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +3.0 | -56.4 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Kedus Giorgis last-5 Elo change: +3.0; Adama Kenema last-5 Elo change: -56.4.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Kedus Giorgis | Adama Kenema |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 0% |
| Attack | 86% | 57% |
| Defense | 0% | 0% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 4 | 0.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 10 | 2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.70
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.90
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.70
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
52%
FT probability
2.5+
37%
FT probability
3.5+
26%
FT probability
BTTS
58%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-1
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Kedus Giorgis | Adama Kenema | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 12 | 14 | 26 | 14 | 13 | 27 |
| Wins | 33% | 29% | 31% | 21% | 31% | 26% |
| Draws | 42% | 21% | 31% | 43% | 46% | 44% |
| Loses | 25% | 50% | 38% | 36% | 23% | 30% |
Kedus GiorgisWWLWWLLWLDDDDLWLDLDLDLLWWD
Adama KenemaDDDWWLWDWDLWDDDWDDLWDDLLLLL
League goals
| Metric | Kedus Giorgis | Adama Kenema | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 11 | 11 | 22 | 10 | 14 | 24 |
| GF avg | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| GA total | 8 | 16 | 24 | 15 | 13 | 28 |
| GA avg | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Kedus Giorgis | Adama Kenema | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 54% | 73% | 67% | 56% |
| 1.5 | 19% | 15% | 15% | 37% |
| 2.5 | 8% | 4% | 7% | 11% |
| 3.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Kedus Giorgis | Adama Kenema | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 12 |
| Failed to score | 5 | 7 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 9 |
Penalties
| Metric | Kedus Giorgis | Adama Kenema |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 4 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 4 |
Streaks
| Metric | Kedus Giorgis | Adama Kenema |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 2 |
| Draws | 4 | 3 |
| Losses | 2 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 1-3 | 1-0 | 2-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 3-0 | 1-3 | 3-2 |
| Goals For | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Kedus Giorgis | Adama Kenema |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 100% | 0% |
| Att | 60% | 40% |
| Def | 59% | 41% |
| Poisson Distribution | 56% | 44% |
| H2h | 29% | 71% |
| Goals | 42% | 58% |
| Total | 49.2% | 50.8% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Kedus Giorgis
vs
Adama Kenema
Expected goals
1.02
Kedus Giorgis xG
League Avg: 0.88
Total
1.82
0.79
Adama Kenema xG
League Avg: 0.97
1x2 probabilities
Home
40.0%
Draw
32.4%
Away
27.5%
Best score tips
Tip
1 - 0
16.7%
Tip
0 - 0
16.3%
Tip
1 - 1
13.2%
More chances
1.5+
52%
Chance
2.5+
37%
Chance
3.5+
26%
Chance
BTTS
58%
Chance
🟨 Cards
0 - 1
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Kedus Giorgis = 1.02 (league 0.88), Adama Kenema = 0.79 (league 0.97)
| Adama Kenema | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Kedus Giorgis | 0 | 16.3% | 12.9% | 5.1% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 16.7% | 13.2% | 5.2% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 8.5% | 6.8% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 2.9% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 40.0% · Draw 32.4% · Away win 27.5%
vtt 1 , vtd1