Expected Goals
0.53 (league 1.31)
1.20 (league 0.87)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 16.4% | 30.9% | 52.6% |
best score tips
0 - 1
21.2%
0 - 0
17.6%
0 - 2
12.8%
Score & goals probability table
| Operario Ferroviario | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Ivinhema | 0 | 17.6% | 21.2% | 12.8% | 5.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 9.4% | 11.3% | 6.8% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 2.5% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Ivinhema carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 49 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Ivinhema +3.9, Operario Ferroviario -6.0.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Ivinhema
vs
Operario Ferroviario
Elo gapIvinhema +49
Home / draw / away43% / 24% / 33%
Expected home share57%
Combined Elo3076.6
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3076.6
Elo home share
57%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Ivinhema | Operario Ferroviario |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1545.2 | 1531.4 |
| Form Elo | 1542.5 | 1522.1 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1503.2 | 1535.1 |
| Attack Elo | 1583.4 | 1476.4 |
| Defense Elo | 1532.6 | 1512.5 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +3.9 | -6.0 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Ivinhema last-5 Elo change: +3.9; Operario Ferroviario last-5 Elo change: -6.0.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Ivinhema | Operario Ferroviario |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 3 | 3 |
| Form | 67% | 33% |
| Attack | 31% | 15% |
| Defense | 69% | 85% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 4 | 1.3 | 2 | 0.7 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 1.3 | 2 | 0.7 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
46%
FT probability
2.5+
33%
FT probability
3.5+
23%
FT probability
BTTS
52%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
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Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Ivinhema | Operario Ferroviario | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Wins | 50% | 100% | 67% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Draws | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Loses | 50% | 0% | 33% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
IvinhemaWWL
Operario FerroviarioDDD
League goals
| Metric | Ivinhema | Operario Ferroviario | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| GF avg | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 |
| GA total | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| GA avg | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Ivinhema | Operario Ferroviario | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 100% | 67% | 67% | 67% |
| 1.5 | 33% | 33% | 0% | 0% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 33% | 0% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Ivinhema | Operario Ferroviario | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Penalties
| Metric | Ivinhema | Operario Ferroviario |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Ivinhema | Operario Ferroviario |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 0 |
| Draws | 0 | 3 |
| Losses | 0 | 0 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 1-0 | 1-2 | — | — |
| Biggest losses | 1-3 | — | — | — |
| Goals For | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Ivinhema | Operario Ferroviario |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 67% | 33% |
| Att | 67% | 33% |
| Def | 33% | 67% |
| Poisson Distribution | 0% | 0% |
| H2h | 40% | 60% |
| Goals | 55% | 45% |
| Total | 52.4% | 47.6% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Ivinhema
vs
Operario Ferroviario
Expected goals
0.53
Ivinhema xG
League Avg: 1.31
Total
1.74
1.20
Operario Ferroviario xG
League Avg: 0.87
1x2 probabilities
Home
16.4%
Draw
30.9%
Away
52.6%
Best score tips
Tip
0 - 1
21.2%
Tip
0 - 0
17.6%
Tip
0 - 2
12.8%
More chances
1.5+
46%
Chance
2.5+
33%
Chance
3.5+
23%
Chance
BTTS
52%
Chance
🟨 Cards
—
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Ivinhema = 0.53 (league 1.31), Operario Ferroviario = 1.20 (league 0.87)
| Operario Ferroviario | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Ivinhema | 0 | 17.6% | 21.2% | 12.8% | 5.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 9.4% | 11.3% | 6.8% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 2.5% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 16.4% · Draw 30.9% · Away win 52.6%
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