First League
— Russia
Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 13:00 •
Stadion Urozhay
Expected Goals
1.06 (league 1.25)
1.34 (league 1.06)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 29.4% | 27.3% | 42.9% |
best score tips
1 - 1
12.9%
0 - 1
12.1%
1 - 0
9.6%
Score & goals probability table
| Arsenal Tula | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Spartak Kostroma | 0 | 9.0% | 12.1% | 8.2% | 3.7% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 9.6% | 12.9% | 8.6% | 3.9% | 1.3% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 5.1% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 1.8% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Spartak Kostroma carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 89 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Spartak Kostroma -2.4, Arsenal Tula +7.6.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Spartak Kostroma
vs
Arsenal Tula
Elo gapSpartak Kostroma +89
Home / draw / away50% / 20% / 30%
Expected home share63%
Combined Elo3077.8
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3077.8
Elo home share
63%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Spartak Kostroma | Arsenal Tula |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1566 | 1511.8 |
| Form Elo | 1550.5 | 1514 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1514.2 | 1530.5 |
| Attack Elo | 1553.3 | 1500.8 |
| Defense Elo | 1581.7 | 1529.4 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -2.4 | +7.6 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Spartak Kostroma last-5 Elo change: -2.4; Arsenal Tula last-5 Elo change: +7.6.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Spartak Kostroma | Arsenal Tula |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 47% |
| Attack | 67% | 89% |
| Defense | 22% | 22% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 7 | 1.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.40
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
70%
FT probability
2.5+
49%
FT probability
3.5+
35%
FT probability
BTTS
78%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Spartak Kostroma | Arsenal Tula | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 14 | 15 | 29 | 14 | 15 | 29 |
| Wins | 29% | 47% | 38% | 21% | 33% | 28% |
| Draws | 50% | 27% | 38% | 50% | 33% | 41% |
| Loses | 21% | 27% | 24% | 29% | 33% | 31% |
Spartak KostromaLWDWWWWDWWWDDDLDWLLDLDDDDLWWL
Arsenal TulaDDWDDWLWLLDLDDDLWWWDDDLLWWLDL
League goals
| Metric | Spartak Kostroma | Arsenal Tula | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 16 | 25 | 41 | 19 | 19 | 38 |
| GF avg | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| GA total | 15 | 21 | 36 | 18 | 18 | 36 |
| GA avg | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.2 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Spartak Kostroma | Arsenal Tula | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 79% | 93% | 79% | 90% |
| 1.5 | 45% | 21% | 38% | 34% |
| 2.5 | 14% | 10% | 14% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Spartak Kostroma | Arsenal Tula | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 6 |
Penalties
| Metric | Spartak Kostroma | Arsenal Tula |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 5 | 100.00% | 4 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 5 | 4 |
Streaks
| Metric | Spartak Kostroma | Arsenal Tula |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 3 |
| Draws | 4 | 3 |
| Losses | 2 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-1 | 2-4 | 3-1 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 3-1 | 1-2 | 2-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Spartak Kostroma | Arsenal Tula |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 50% | 50% |
| Att | 43% | 57% |
| Def | 50% | 50% |
| Poisson Distribution | 45% | 55% |
| H2h | 100% | 0% |
| Goals | 67% | 33% |
| Total | 51.0% | 49.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Spartak Kostroma
vs
Arsenal Tula
Expected goals
1.06
Spartak Kostroma xG
League Avg: 1.25
Total
2.40
1.34
Arsenal Tula xG
League Avg: 1.06
1x2 probabilities
Home
29.4%
Draw
27.3%
Away
42.9%
Best score tips
Tip
1 - 1
12.9%
Tip
0 - 1
12.1%
Tip
1 - 0
9.6%
More chances
1.5+
70%
Chance
2.5+
49%
Chance
3.5+
35%
Chance
BTTS
78%
Chance
🟨 Cards
2 - 4
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Spartak Kostroma = 1.06 (league 1.25), Arsenal Tula = 1.34 (league 1.06)
| Arsenal Tula | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Spartak Kostroma | 0 | 9.0% | 12.1% | 8.2% | 3.7% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 9.6% | 12.9% | 8.6% | 3.9% | 1.3% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 5.1% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 1.8% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 29.4% · Draw 27.3% · Away win 42.9%
vtt 1 , vtd1