Thu, Apr 23 2026 • 11:30 •
Charentsavan City Stadium
Expected Goals
1.71 (league 1.64)
1.36 (league 1.21)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 44.9% | 23.6% | 30.4% |
best score tips
1 - 1
10.8%
2 - 1
9.2%
1 - 0
7.9%
Score & goals probability table
| BKMA | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Van | 0 | 4.6% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 7.9% | 10.8% | 7.4% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 6.8% | 9.2% | 6.3% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 3.9% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 1.6% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Van carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 137 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Van -15.5, BKMA -16.7.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Van
vs
BKMA
Elo gapVan +137
Home / draw / away57% / 18% / 25%
Expected home share69%
Combined Elo2947.8
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2947.8
Elo home share
69%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Van | BKMA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1524.7 | 1423.1 |
| Form Elo | 1522.7 | 1403.3 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1529.8 | 1454.8 |
| Attack Elo | 1519.7 | 1428.3 |
| Defense Elo | 1505.5 | 1469.5 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -15.5 | -16.7 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Van last-5 Elo change: -15.5; BKMA last-5 Elo change: -16.7.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Van | BKMA |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 27% | 20% |
| Attack | 38% | 15% |
| Defense | 23% | 62% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 10 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.10
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.50
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.10
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
80%
FT probability
2.5+
56%
FT probability
3.5+
40%
FT probability
BTTS
71%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Van | BKMA | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 11 | 10 | 21 | 12 | 10 | 22 |
| Wins | 36% | 30% | 33% | 17% | 10% | 14% |
| Draws | 27% | 10% | 19% | 50% | 30% | 41% |
| Loses | 36% | 60% | 48% | 33% | 60% | 45% |
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League goals
| Metric | Van | BKMA | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 15 | 8 | 23 | 12 | 11 | 23 |
| GF avg | 1.4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| GA total | 16 | 17 | 33 | 13 | 20 | 33 |
| GA avg | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.5 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Van | BKMA | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 62% | 81% | 64% | 77% |
| 1.5 | 33% | 57% | 27% | 55% |
| 2.5 | 14% | 10% | 9% | 14% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 5% | 5% | 5% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 5% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Van | BKMA | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 5 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
Penalties
| Metric | Van | BKMA |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 7 | 100.00% | 4 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 7 | 4 |
Streaks
| Metric | Van | BKMA |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 1 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-2 | 2-3 | 4-0 | 2-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 5-1 | 1-3 | 4-1 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 5 | 3 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Van | BKMA |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 57% | 43% |
| Att | 71% | 29% |
| Def | 33% | 67% |
| Poisson Distribution | 56% | 44% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 52.8% | 47.2% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Van
vs
BKMA
Expected goals
1.71
Van xG
League Avg: 1.64
Total
3.07
1.36
BKMA xG
League Avg: 1.21
1x2 probabilities
Home
44.9%
Draw
23.6%
Away
30.4%
Best score tips
Tip
1 - 1
10.8%
Tip
2 - 1
9.2%
Tip
1 - 0
7.9%
More chances
1.5+
80%
Chance
2.5+
56%
Chance
3.5+
40%
Chance
BTTS
71%
Chance
🟨 Cards
2 - 3
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Van = 1.71 (league 1.64), BKMA = 1.36 (league 1.21)
| BKMA | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Van | 0 | 4.6% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 7.9% | 10.8% | 7.4% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 6.8% | 9.2% | 6.3% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 3.9% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 1.6% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 44.9% · Draw 23.6% · Away win 30.4%
vtt 1 , vtd1