Ligue 1 — Ivory-Coast
Tue, Apr 21 2026 • 16:00 • Venue TBA
Not Started

Mouna

—

SOA

Expected Goals
0.75 (league 0.96) 0.82 (league 1.02)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
30.2% 35.6% 34.2%
best score tips
0 - 0
20.7%
0 - 1
17.0%
1 - 0
15.6%
Score & goals probability table
SOA
0 1 2 3 4 5
Mouna 0 20.7% 17.0% 7.0% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1%
1 15.6% 12.8% 5.3% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0%
2 5.9% 4.8% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
3 1.5% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
FootyWow Elo verdict

Home edge

Mouna carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 62 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Mouna -6.9, SOA -6.7.

Medium confidence Upset risk: Medium Elo standalone
Mouna Elo 1508.4 · -6.9
vs
SOA Elo 1481.3 · -6.7
Elo gapMouna +62
Home / draw / away45% / 23% / 32%
Expected home share59%
Combined Elo2989.7
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge Home edge
Confidence band Medium confidence
Upset risk Medium
Model agreement Elo standalone
Combined Elo 2989.7
Elo home share 59%
Match tone Tactical Watch
Metric Mouna SOA
Overall Elo1508.41481.3
Form Elo15071478.1
Home / Away Elo1475.41504.7
Attack Elo1477.61363.9
Defense Elo1546.71622.8
Last 5 Elo change-6.9-6.7

The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Mouna last-5 Elo change: -6.9; SOA last-5 Elo change: -6.7.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricMounaSOA
Played55
Form47%27%
Attack77%31%
Defense69%62%
Goals For (tot | avg)10 | 24 | 0.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)4 | 0.85 | 1

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.10
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.60
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.70
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

53%
FT probability

2.5+

37%
FT probability

3.5+

26%
FT probability

BTTS

57%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

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Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Mouna SOA
HATHAT
Played121224131124
Wins25%67%46%38%27%33%
Draws33%8%21%31%27%29%
Loses42%25%33%31%45%38%
MounaDLLDWWWWLWLDWLDWWLWLWDLW
SOADWDWWLLLWLLDWLWLWLWDLDDD

League goals

Metric Mouna SOA
HATHAT
GF total1122339817
GF avg0.91.81.40.70.70.7
GA total149238917
GA avg1.20.81.00.60.80.7

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineMounaSOA
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.571%58%58%58%
1.542%29%13%13%
2.513%8%0%0%
3.54%0%0%0%
4.54%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricMounaSOA
HATHAT
Clean sheets46106410
Failed to score4375510

Penalties

MetricMounaSOA
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total00

Streaks

MetricMounaSOA
Wins42
Draws11
Losses23

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins1-00-62-10-2
Biggest losses0-23-11-22-1
Goals For2622
Goals Against3322

Model comparison

MetricMounaSOA
Form64%36%
Att71%29%
Def56%44%
Poisson Distribution49%51%
H2h60%40%
Goals50%50%
Total58.3%41.7%
💸

Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

📊

League standings

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League page • Country page • Mouna vs SOA
footywow.com

Prediction and Tips for:

Mouna
vs
SOA
Ligue 1 • Ivory-Coast • Tue, Apr 21 2026 • 16:00 • Venue TBA
Expected goals
0.75
Mouna xG League Avg: 0.96
Total
1.58
0.82
SOA xG League Avg: 1.02
1x2 probabilities
Home
30.2%
Draw
35.6%
Away
34.2%
Best score tips
Tip
0 - 0
20.7%
Tip
0 - 1
17.0%
Tip
1 - 0
15.6%
More chances
1.5+
53%
Chance
2.5+
37%
Chance
3.5+
26%
Chance
BTTS
57%
Chance
🟨 Cards
—
Exp.
#Mouna #Soa #Ligue1 #footballpredictions #footywow

Expected goals (λ): Mouna = 0.75 (league 0.96), SOA = 0.82 (league 1.02)

SOA
0 1 2 3 4 5
Mouna 0 20.7% 17.0% 7.0% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1%
1 15.6% 12.8% 5.3% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0%
2 5.9% 4.8% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
3 1.5% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 30.2% · Draw 35.6% · Away win 34.2%

vtt 1 , vtd1