Fri, Apr 24 2026 • 17:00 •
Stade Lebon
Expected Goals
1.60 (league 1.41)
0.87 (league 1.11)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 53.9% | 25.1% | 20.4% |
best score tips
1 - 0
13.6%
1 - 1
11.8%
2 - 0
10.8%
Score & goals probability table
| Chauray | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Angoulême | 0 | 8.5% | 7.4% | 3.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 13.6% | 11.8% | 5.1% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 10.8% | 9.4% | 4.1% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 5.8% | 5.0% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 2.3% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Angoulême carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 25 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Angoulême -5.9, Chauray +36.9.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Angoulême
vs
Chauray
Elo gapAngoulême +25
Home / draw / away39% / 27% / 34%
Expected home share54%
Combined Elo3001.1
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3001.1
Elo home share
54%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Angoulême | Chauray |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1495.6 | 1505.5 |
| Form Elo | 1492.1 | 1510.8 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1528.9 | 1513.6 |
| Attack Elo | 1375.3 | 1475.4 |
| Defense Elo | 1564.2 | 1543.8 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -5.9 | +36.9 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Angoulême last-5 Elo change: -5.9; Chauray last-5 Elo change: +36.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Angoulême | Chauray |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 33% | 80% |
| Attack | 45% | 91% |
| Defense | 27% | 64% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 10 | 2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 4 | 0.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.90
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.70
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.30
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
66%
FT probability
2.5+
46%
FT probability
3.5+
33%
FT probability
BTTS
61%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
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Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Angoulême | Chauray | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 13 | 13 | 26 | 13 | 13 | 26 |
| Wins | 62% | 8% | 35% | 38% | 31% | 35% |
| Draws | 23% | 46% | 35% | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Loses | 15% | 46% | 31% | 46% | 54% | 50% |
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League goals
| Metric | Angoulême | Chauray | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 19 | 5 | 24 | 12 | 15 | 27 |
| GF avg | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| GA total | 10 | 18 | 28 | 12 | 19 | 31 |
| GA avg | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Angoulême | Chauray | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 65% | 54% | 54% | 77% |
| 1.5 | 19% | 35% | 35% | 23% |
| 2.5 | 8% | 12% | 15% | 15% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 4% | 0% | 4% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 4% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Angoulême | Chauray | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 8 | 4 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 12 |
Penalties
| Metric | Angoulême | Chauray |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 3 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 3 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Angoulême | Chauray |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 4 |
| Draws | 4 | 1 |
| Losses | 2 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 0-1 | 3-1 | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | 1-3 | 5-0 | 0-1 | 4-2 |
| Goals For | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 5 | 3 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Angoulême | Chauray |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 29% | 71% |
| Att | 33% | 67% |
| Def | 33% | 67% |
| Poisson Distribution | 65% | 35% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 0% | 0% |
| Total | 42.0% | 58.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Angoulême
vs
Chauray
Expected goals
1.60
Angoulême xG
League Avg: 1.41
Total
2.46
0.87
Chauray xG
League Avg: 1.11
1x2 probabilities
Home
53.9%
Draw
25.1%
Away
20.4%
Best score tips
Tip
1 - 0
13.6%
Tip
1 - 1
11.8%
Tip
2 - 0
10.8%
More chances
1.5+
66%
Chance
2.5+
46%
Chance
3.5+
33%
Chance
BTTS
61%
Chance
🟨 Cards
—
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Angoulême = 1.60 (league 1.41), Chauray = 0.87 (league 1.11)
| Chauray | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Angoulême | 0 | 8.5% | 7.4% | 3.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 13.6% | 11.8% | 5.1% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 10.8% | 9.4% | 4.1% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 5.8% | 5.0% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 2.3% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 53.9% · Draw 25.1% · Away win 20.4%
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