Ykkönen — Finland
Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 13:00 • Keskuskentta
Not Started

Rops

—

KPV-j

Expected Goals
1.52 (league 1.98) 1.35 (league 1.48)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
40.9% 24.8% 33.5%
best score tips
1 - 1
11.7%
2 - 1
8.8%
1 - 0
8.6%
Score & goals probability table
KPV-j
0 1 2 3 4 5
Rops 0 5.7% 7.7% 5.2% 2.3% 0.8% 0.2%
1 8.6% 11.7% 7.9% 3.5% 1.2% 0.3%
2 6.6% 8.8% 6.0% 2.7% 0.9% 0.2%
3 3.3% 4.5% 3.0% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1%
4 1.3% 1.7% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
5 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
FootyWow Elo verdict

Home edge

Rops carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 82 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Rops +18.4, KPV-j -10.3.

Medium confidence Upset risk: Medium Elo standalone
Rops Elo 1549.5 · +18.4
vs
KPV-j Elo 1502.3 · -10.3
Elo gapRops +82
Home / draw / away49% / 21% / 30%
Expected home share62%
Combined Elo3051.8
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge Home edge
Confidence band Medium confidence
Upset risk Medium
Model agreement Elo standalone
Combined Elo 3051.8
Elo home share 62%
Match tone Tactical Watch
Metric Rops KPV-j
Overall Elo1549.51502.3
Form Elo1582.61480.3
Home / Away Elo1516.41468.9
Attack Elo1564.71596.7
Defense Elo1450.21410.1
Last 5 Elo change+18.4-10.3

The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Rops last-5 Elo change: +18.4; KPV-j last-5 Elo change: -10.3.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricRopsKPV-j
Played33
Form78%22%
Attack50%17%
Defense75%67%
Goals For (tot | avg)6 | 22 | 0.7
Goals Against (tot | avg)3 | 14 | 1.3

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.70
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

86%
FT probability

2.5+

60%
FT probability

3.5+

43%
FT probability

BTTS

69%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

3-5
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Rops KPV-j
HATHAT
Played123123
Wins100%50%67%0%0%0%
Draws0%50%33%0%100%67%
Loses0%0%0%100%0%33%
RopsDWW
KPV-jDDL

League goals

Metric Rops KPV-j
HATHAT
GF total336022
GF avg3.01.52.00.01.00.7
GA total213224
GA avg2.00.51.02.01.01.3

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineRopsKPV-j
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.5100%67%33%67%
1.567%33%33%67%
2.533%0%0%0%
3.50%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricRopsKPV-j
HATHAT
Clean sheets011011
Failed to score000112

Penalties

MetricRopsKPV-j
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total12

Streaks

MetricRopsKPV-j
Wins00
Draws12
Losses00

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-20-2——
Biggest losses——0-2—
Goals For3202
Goals Against2122

Model comparison

MetricRopsKPV-j
Form78%22%
Att75%25%
Def57%43%
Poisson Distribution58%42%
H2h15%85%
Goals28%72%
Total51.8%48.2%
💸

Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

📊

League standings

Loading standings…
League page • Country page • Venue page • Rops vs KPV-j
footywow.com

Prediction and Tips for:

Rops
vs
KPV-j
Ykkönen • Finland • Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 13:00 • Keskuskentta
Expected goals
1.52
Rops xG League Avg: 1.98
Total
2.87
1.35
KPV-j xG League Avg: 1.48
1x2 probabilities
Home
40.9%
Draw
24.8%
Away
33.5%
Best score tips
Tip
1 - 1
11.7%
Tip
2 - 1
8.8%
Tip
1 - 0
8.6%
More chances
1.5+
86%
Chance
2.5+
60%
Chance
3.5+
43%
Chance
BTTS
69%
Chance
🟨 Cards
3 - 5
Exp.
#Rops #KpvJ #Ykkönen #footballpredictions #footywow

Expected goals (λ): Rops = 1.52 (league 1.98), KPV-j = 1.35 (league 1.48)

KPV-j
0 1 2 3 4 5
Rops 0 5.7% 7.7% 5.2% 2.3% 0.8% 0.2%
1 8.6% 11.7% 7.9% 3.5% 1.2% 0.3%
2 6.6% 8.8% 6.0% 2.7% 0.9% 0.2%
3 3.3% 4.5% 3.0% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1%
4 1.3% 1.7% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
5 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 40.9% · Draw 24.8% · Away win 33.5%

vtt 1 , vtd1