Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 10:00 •
Estadio Tabiella
Expected Goals
0.96 (league 1.40)
1.11 (league 1.14)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 31.2% | 30.1% | 38.6% |
best score tips
0 - 1
14.0%
1 - 1
13.4%
0 - 0
12.6%
Score & goals probability table
| Caudal | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Navarro | 0 | 12.6% | 14.0% | 7.7% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 12.1% | 13.4% | 7.5% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 5.8% | 6.5% | 3.6% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away strong edge
Caudal carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 138 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Navarro -16.5, Caudal +17.8.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Navarro
vs
Caudal
Elo gapCaudal +138
Home / draw / away25% / 18% / 57%
Expected home share31%
Combined Elo3063.8
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3063.8
Elo home share
31%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Navarro | Caudal |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1445.4 | 1618.4 |
| Form Elo | 1445.4 | 1627.8 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1492.4 | 1554.8 |
| Attack Elo | 1460 | 1600.9 |
| Defense Elo | 1460.6 | 1595.2 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -16.5 | +17.8 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Navarro last-5 Elo change: -16.5; Caudal last-5 Elo change: +17.8.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Navarro | Caudal |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 33% | 80% |
| Attack | 24% | 65% |
| Defense | 71% | 76% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 11 | 2.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.40
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
73%
FT probability
2.5+
51%
FT probability
3.5+
36%
FT probability
BTTS
72%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
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Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Navarro | Caudal | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 16 | 31 | 16 | 15 | 31 |
| Wins | 20% | 13% | 16% | 69% | 47% | 58% |
| Draws | 60% | 25% | 42% | 19% | 20% | 19% |
| Loses | 20% | 63% | 42% | 13% | 33% | 23% |
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CaudalDWWDWWWLDLDDWDWWWLLWWLWWLWWLWWW
League goals
| Metric | Navarro | Caudal | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 22 | 12 | 34 | 41 | 13 | 54 |
| GF avg | 1.5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 1.7 |
| GA total | 21 | 26 | 47 | 23 | 13 | 36 |
| GA avg | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 1.2 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Navarro | Caudal | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 61% | 90% | 81% | 77% |
| 1.5 | 35% | 48% | 52% | 26% |
| 2.5 | 10% | 13% | 26% | 13% |
| 3.5 | 3% | 0% | 10% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 3% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Navarro | Caudal | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 7 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 9 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 |
Penalties
| Metric | Navarro | Caudal |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 4 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 4 |
Streaks
| Metric | Navarro | Caudal |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 3 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-1 | 0-2 | 6-1 | 1-2 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 3-0 | 0-3 | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 4 | 3 | 6 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Navarro | Caudal |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 29% | 71% |
| Att | 27% | 73% |
| Def | 44% | 56% |
| Poisson Distribution | 44% | 56% |
| H2h | 15% | 85% |
| Goals | 33% | 67% |
| Total | 32.0% | 68.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Navarro
vs
Caudal
Expected goals
0.96
Navarro xG
League Avg: 1.40
Total
2.07
1.11
Caudal xG
League Avg: 1.14
1x2 probabilities
Home
31.2%
Draw
30.1%
Away
38.6%
Best score tips
Tip
0 - 1
14.0%
Tip
1 - 1
13.4%
Tip
0 - 0
12.6%
More chances
1.5+
73%
Chance
2.5+
51%
Chance
3.5+
36%
Chance
BTTS
72%
Chance
🟨 Cards
—
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Navarro = 0.96 (league 1.40), Caudal = 1.11 (league 1.14)
| Caudal | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Navarro | 0 | 12.6% | 14.0% | 7.7% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 12.1% | 13.4% | 7.5% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 5.8% | 6.5% | 3.6% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 31.2% · Draw 30.1% · Away win 38.6%
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