Wed, Jan 21 2026 • 20:00 • Bet365 Stadium
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.23 (league 1.37) 0.98 (league 1.15)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
41.7% 28.8% 29.3%
best score tips
1 - 0
13.5%
1 - 1
13.2%
0 - 0
11.0%
Score & goals probability table
Middlesbrough
0 1 2 3 4 5
Stoke City 0 11.0% 10.8% 5.3% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1%
1 13.5% 13.2% 6.5% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1%
2 8.3% 8.1% 4.0% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1%
3 3.4% 3.3% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
4 1.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricStoke CityMiddlesbrough
Played55
Form53%47%
Attack36%64%
Defense82%64%
Goals For (tot | avg)4 | 0.87 | 1.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)2 | 0.44 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.70
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.80
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.90
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

67%
FT probability

2.5+

47%
FT probability

3.5+

34%
FT probability

BTTS

65%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Stoke City Middlesbrough
HATHAT
Played131427131427
Wins46%43%44%62%43%52%
Draws23%14%19%23%29%26%
Loses31%43%37%15%29%22%

Form: Stoke City: WWWLWLDDDWLWWWLLWLLLWLDLWWD • Middlesbrough: WWWWDWDDLWWDLDWDLWWWWLDLLWW

League goals

Metric Stoke City Middlesbrough
HATHAT
GF total181432202040
GF avg1.41.01.21.51.41.5
GA total101323111728
GA avg0.80.90.90.81.21.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineStoke CityMiddlesbrough
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.563%59%74%74%
1.530%19%48%19%
2.519%4%19%7%
3.54%4%7%4%
4.54%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricStoke CityMiddlesbrough
HATHAT
Clean sheets5611527
Failed to score4610347

Penalties

MetricStoke CityMiddlesbrough
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total01

Streaks

MetricStoke CityMiddlesbrough
Wins34
Draws32
Losses32

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins5-10-34-01-4
Biggest losses1-24-02-43-0
Goals For5344
Goals Against2443

Model comparison

MetricStoke CityMiddlesbrough
Form53%47%
Att36%64%
Def67%33%
Poisson Distribution56%44%
H2h50%50%
Goals62%38%
Total54.0%46.0%

Advice: Combo Double chance : Stoke City or draw and -3.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.96 @ 10Bet
Draw3.39 @ Pinnacle
Away2.59 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.09 @ 188Bet
Under 2.51.82 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.80 @ 10Bet
No2.09 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Stoke City = 1.23 (league 1.37), Middlesbrough = 0.98 (league 1.15)

Middlesbrough
0 1 2 3 4 5
Stoke City 0 11.0% 10.8% 5.3% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1%
1 13.5% 13.2% 6.5% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1%
2 8.3% 8.1% 4.0% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1%
3 3.4% 3.3% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
4 1.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 41.7% · Draw 28.8% · Away win 29.3%

vtt 5 , vtd1