Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 12:00 •
Rosenaustadion
Expected Goals
1.77 (league 1.56)
2.18 (league 1.39)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 30.9% | 20.4% | 45.3% |
best score tips
1 - 2
8.1%
1 - 1
7.4%
2 - 2
7.2%
Score & goals probability table
| Ansbach | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Schwaben Augsburg | 0 | 1.9% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| 1 | 3.4% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 1.4% | |
| 2 | 3.0% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 1.2% | |
| 3 | 1.8% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.7% | |
| 4 | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Balanced Elo outlook
Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Schwaben Augsburg -0.7, Ansbach -4.7.
Thin confidence
Upset risk: High
Elo standalone
Schwaben Augsburg
vs
Ansbach
Elo gapLevel
Home / draw / away35% / 30% / 35%
Expected home share50%
Combined Elo2979
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Balanced Elo outlook
Confidence band
Thin confidence
Upset risk
High
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2979
Elo home share
50%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Schwaben Augsburg | Ansbach |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1472 | 1507 |
| Form Elo | 1481.2 | 1507.6 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1447 | 1487.3 |
| Attack Elo | 1475.3 | 1608.3 |
| Defense Elo | 1443.5 | 1400.5 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -0.7 | -4.7 |
The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Schwaben Augsburg last-5 Elo change: -0.7; Ansbach last-5 Elo change: -4.7.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Schwaben Augsburg | Ansbach |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 40% | 47% |
| Attack | 19% | 38% |
| Defense | 44% | 50% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 8 | 1.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.80
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.70
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.20
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
67%
FT probability
3.5+
48%
FT probability
BTTS
79%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Schwaben Augsburg | Ansbach | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 14 | 29 | 15 | 15 | 30 |
| Wins | 20% | 29% | 24% | 47% | 27% | 37% |
| Draws | 27% | 21% | 24% | 20% | 27% | 23% |
| Loses | 53% | 50% | 52% | 33% | 47% | 40% |
Schwaben AugsburgLLLLLDDDLDLLLWLDDLWWDWLWLLWWL
AnsbachLLLDLWWDWWDDLLDWLWLDWWLWLDLWWL
League goals
| Metric | Schwaben Augsburg | Ansbach | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 18 | 15 | 33 | 23 | 24 | 47 |
| GF avg | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| GA total | 29 | 24 | 53 | 21 | 35 | 56 |
| GA avg | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.9 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Schwaben Augsburg | Ansbach | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 66% | 86% | 87% | 80% |
| 1.5 | 34% | 59% | 40% | 63% |
| 2.5 | 10% | 21% | 20% | 33% |
| 3.5 | 3% | 10% | 3% | 10% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 7% | 3% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Schwaben Augsburg | Ansbach | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| Failed to score | 5 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
Penalties
| Metric | Schwaben Augsburg | Ansbach |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 3 | 100.00% | 4 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 3 | 4 |
Streaks
| Metric | Schwaben Augsburg | Ansbach |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 2 |
| Draws | 3 | 2 |
| Losses | 5 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-2 | 0-3 | 3-0 | 3-6 |
| Biggest losses | 1-4 | 5-0 | 0-3 | 4-1 |
| Goals For | 4 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 5 | 3 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Schwaben Augsburg | Ansbach |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 46% | 54% |
| Att | 33% | 67% |
| Def | 47% | 53% |
| Poisson Distribution | 44% | 56% |
| H2h | 33% | 67% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 42.2% | 57.8% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Schwaben Augsburg
vs
Ansbach
Expected goals
1.77
Schwaben Augsburg xG
League Avg: 1.56
Total
3.96
2.18
Ansbach xG
League Avg: 1.39
1x2 probabilities
Home
30.9%
Draw
20.4%
Away
45.3%
Best score tips
Tip
1 - 2
8.1%
Tip
1 - 1
7.4%
Tip
2 - 2
7.2%
More chances
1.5+
95%
Chance
2.5+
67%
Chance
3.5+
48%
Chance
BTTS
79%
Chance
🟨 Cards
0 - 0
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Schwaben Augsburg = 1.77 (league 1.56), Ansbach = 2.18 (league 1.39)
| Ansbach | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Schwaben Augsburg | 0 | 1.9% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| 1 | 3.4% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 1.4% | |
| 2 | 3.0% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 1.2% | |
| 3 | 1.8% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.7% | |
| 4 | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 30.9% · Draw 20.4% · Away win 45.3%
vtt 1 , vtd1