Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 12:00 •
Auestadion
Expected Goals
2.91 (league 1.79)
1.05 (league 1.57)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 67.9% | 14.0% | 10.6% |
best score tips
2 - 1
8.5%
3 - 1
8.2%
2 - 0
8.1%
Score & goals probability table
| Balingen | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Hessen Kassel | 0 | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 5.6% | 5.8% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 8.1% | 8.5% | 4.4% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 7.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 5.7% | 6.0% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 3.3% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Hessen Kassel carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 177 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Hessen Kassel -7.7, Balingen -39.3.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Hessen Kassel
vs
Balingen
Elo gapHessen Kassel +177
Home / draw / away60% / 18% / 22%
Expected home share73%
Combined Elo3036.9
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3036.9
Elo home share
73%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Hessen Kassel | Balingen |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1589.2 | 1447.7 |
| Form Elo | 1586.8 | 1422 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1525.2 | 1488.3 |
| Attack Elo | 1682.3 | 1511.4 |
| Defense Elo | 1558.1 | 1263.7 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -7.7 | -39.3 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Hessen Kassel last-5 Elo change: -7.7; Balingen last-5 Elo change: -39.3.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Hessen Kassel | Balingen |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 7% |
| Attack | 53% | 21% |
| Defense | 47% | 26% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 10 | 2 | 4 | 0.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 10 | 2 | 14 | 2.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.90
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.20
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.40
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
72%
FT probability
3.5+
51%
FT probability
BTTS
77%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Hessen Kassel | Balingen | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 15 | 30 | 15 | 15 | 30 |
| Wins | 40% | 40% | 40% | 13% | 20% | 17% |
| Draws | 33% | 20% | 27% | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Loses | 27% | 40% | 33% | 67% | 60% | 63% |
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BalingenLLWLLLWWLDDLLDLWLLDLLLWLDLLLDL
League goals
| Metric | Hessen Kassel | Balingen | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 27 | 26 | 53 | 15 | 16 | 31 |
| GF avg | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| GA total | 22 | 26 | 48 | 34 | 43 | 77 |
| GA avg | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 2.6 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Hessen Kassel | Balingen | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 90% | 87% | 53% | 93% |
| 1.5 | 63% | 47% | 27% | 63% |
| 2.5 | 20% | 23% | 17% | 43% |
| 3.5 | 3% | 3% | 7% | 33% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 13% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Hessen Kassel | Balingen | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 14 |
Penalties
| Metric | Hessen Kassel | Balingen |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | Hessen Kassel | Balingen |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 1-3 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Biggest losses | 1-3 | 4-2 | 0-6 | 6-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 4 | 6 | 6 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Hessen Kassel | Balingen |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 88% | 13% |
| Att | 71% | 29% |
| Def | 58% | 42% |
| Poisson Distribution | 75% | 25% |
| H2h | 38% | 62% |
| Goals | 48% | 52% |
| Total | 63.0% | 37.2% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Hessen Kassel
vs
Balingen
Expected goals
2.91
Hessen Kassel xG
League Avg: 1.79
Total
3.96
1.05
Balingen xG
League Avg: 1.57
1x2 probabilities
Home
67.9%
Draw
14.0%
Away
10.6%
Best score tips
Tip
2 - 1
8.5%
Tip
3 - 1
8.2%
Tip
2 - 0
8.1%
More chances
1.5+
95%
Chance
2.5+
72%
Chance
3.5+
51%
Chance
BTTS
77%
Chance
🟨 Cards
0 - 0
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Hessen Kassel = 2.91 (league 1.79), Balingen = 1.05 (league 1.57)
| Balingen | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Hessen Kassel | 0 | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 5.6% | 5.8% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 8.1% | 8.5% | 4.4% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 7.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 5.7% | 6.0% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 3.3% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 67.9% · Draw 14.0% · Away win 10.6%
vtt 1 , vtd1