Fri, Apr 24 2026 • 17:00 •
Stade Massabielle
Expected Goals
2.17 (league 1.41)
0.40 (league 1.11)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 76.3% | 15.9% | 5.5% |
best score tips
2 - 0
18.1%
1 - 0
16.7%
3 - 0
13.1%
Score & goals probability table
| Granville | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Les Herbiers | 0 | 7.7% | 3.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 16.7% | 6.6% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 18.1% | 7.2% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 13.1% | 5.2% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 7.1% | 2.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Les Herbiers carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 161 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Les Herbiers +24.4, Granville +33.7.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Les Herbiers
vs
Granville
Elo gapLes Herbiers +161
Home / draw / away59% / 18% / 23%
Expected home share72%
Combined Elo3059.7
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3059.7
Elo home share
72%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Les Herbiers | Granville |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1592.8 | 1466.9 |
| Form Elo | 1594.8 | 1486.5 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1568.1 | 1475.6 |
| Attack Elo | 1602.3 | 1464.4 |
| Defense Elo | 1594.7 | 1489.1 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +24.4 | +33.7 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Les Herbiers last-5 Elo change: +24.4; Granville last-5 Elo change: +33.7.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Les Herbiers | Granville |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 80% | 60% |
| Attack | 100% | 64% |
| Defense | 64% | 73% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 11 | 2.2 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 3 | 0.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.80
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.20
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
71%
FT probability
2.5+
50%
FT probability
3.5+
36%
FT probability
BTTS
68%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
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Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Les Herbiers | Granville | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 12 | 14 | 26 | 13 | 13 | 26 |
| Wins | 75% | 29% | 50% | 23% | 15% | 19% |
| Draws | 17% | 21% | 19% | 31% | 31% | 31% |
| Loses | 8% | 50% | 31% | 46% | 54% | 50% |
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GranvilleDWWLLLLLLLLLLDLLDWDDLDWWDD
League goals
| Metric | Les Herbiers | Granville | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 20 | 17 | 37 | 14 | 14 | 28 |
| GF avg | 1.7 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| GA total | 5 | 22 | 27 | 15 | 23 | 38 |
| GA avg | 0.4 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.5 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Les Herbiers | Granville | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 77% | 65% | 77% | 77% |
| 1.5 | 50% | 23% | 27% | 38% |
| 2.5 | 12% | 12% | 4% | 23% |
| 3.5 | 4% | 4% | 0% | 8% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Les Herbiers | Granville | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 7 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
Penalties
| Metric | Les Herbiers | Granville |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Les Herbiers | Granville |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 2 |
| Draws | 3 | 2 |
| Losses | 4 | 10 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 1-3 | 3-0 | 1-2 |
| Biggest losses | 0-1 | 3-0 | 0-2 | 4-2 |
| Goals For | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Les Herbiers | Granville |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 57% | 43% |
| Att | 61% | 39% |
| Def | 43% | 57% |
| Poisson Distribution | 83% | 17% |
| H2h | 67% | 33% |
| Goals | 67% | 33% |
| Total | 63.0% | 37.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Les Herbiers
vs
Granville
Expected goals
2.17
Les Herbiers xG
League Avg: 1.41
Total
2.57
0.40
Granville xG
League Avg: 1.11
1x2 probabilities
Home
76.3%
Draw
15.9%
Away
5.5%
Best score tips
Tip
2 - 0
18.1%
Tip
1 - 0
16.7%
Tip
3 - 0
13.1%
More chances
1.5+
71%
Chance
2.5+
50%
Chance
3.5+
36%
Chance
BTTS
68%
Chance
🟨 Cards
—
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Les Herbiers = 2.17 (league 1.41), Granville = 0.40 (league 1.11)
| Granville | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Les Herbiers | 0 | 7.7% | 3.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 16.7% | 6.6% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 18.1% | 7.2% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 13.1% | 5.2% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 7.1% | 2.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 76.3% · Draw 15.9% · Away win 5.5%
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